Hello everyone,
What differs dumb trading from smart trading? I know, because I used to trade like an idiot, and I'm pretty sure most people in the market do, and this is why I'm posting this chart. This one is relatively easy to predict if you know some basics.
Dumb money is when you trade now, and decide to buy or sell when the current price is around 9900. The most important part about trading is not predicting everything with 100 percent accuracy, but it is making smart decisions based on smart probabilities. That being said, what are the indicators that affect those probabilities ?
- RSI ( the 4h chart is reliable )
- Fibonacci resistance levels
- EMA's
- Trend lines
- Volume
Now, you as a bitcoin holder, or someone who wants to buy bitcoin, what would you do in this current situation? You would look at the indicators, and make a smart decision.
1) Is it the time to buy BTC ?
- It can go up, but, it will most likely correct soon, as RSI is nearing overbought zone. What is your probability of success here ?
2) We broke a main Fibonacci level and we are right in the middle of it, what do I do ?
- You do absolutely nothing, you wait for the next one and see what's going on. Will it correct downwards, or will it be in accumulation phase ?
3) When do I sell my BTC to buy back lower?
- Most indicators are pointing towards the 10400 mark or the 11600 mark. As RSI is at the top, I expect a correction around the 10400 mark. The smartest thing would be to secure profits between 10100- 10400.
4) What happens if it keeps on going up?
- You do nothing and you wait for the correction, unless as massive bull run happens like in December. How likely is that? Considering volume, I would say it's very low right now.
What differs dumb trading from smart trading? I know, because I used to trade like an idiot, and I'm pretty sure most people in the market do, and this is why I'm posting this chart. This one is relatively easy to predict if you know some basics.
Dumb money is when you trade now, and decide to buy or sell when the current price is around 9900. The most important part about trading is not predicting everything with 100 percent accuracy, but it is making smart decisions based on smart probabilities. That being said, what are the indicators that affect those probabilities ?
- RSI ( the 4h chart is reliable )
- Fibonacci resistance levels
- EMA's
- Trend lines
- Volume
Now, you as a bitcoin holder, or someone who wants to buy bitcoin, what would you do in this current situation? You would look at the indicators, and make a smart decision.
1) Is it the time to buy BTC ?
- It can go up, but, it will most likely correct soon, as RSI is nearing overbought zone. What is your probability of success here ?
2) We broke a main Fibonacci level and we are right in the middle of it, what do I do ?
- You do absolutely nothing, you wait for the next one and see what's going on. Will it correct downwards, or will it be in accumulation phase ?
3) When do I sell my BTC to buy back lower?
- Most indicators are pointing towards the 10400 mark or the 11600 mark. As RSI is at the top, I expect a correction around the 10400 mark. The smartest thing would be to secure profits between 10100- 10400.
4) What happens if it keeps on going up?
- You do nothing and you wait for the correction, unless as massive bull run happens like in December. How likely is that? Considering volume, I would say it's very low right now.
Comment:
BTC bounced off fib + RSI low, we go up now
How do we analyze the current scenario ?
- We broke the 55 day EMA, and we broke down the 9683 Fibonacci level. Now, same thing, you don't do anything, you wait for further data. RSI is near oversold, so in my opinion, it can go down a little bit, but not too much. Selling should have been made yesterday and not now.
In my opinion, it's just a weekend dip.