This isn't much a technical analysis, but more of a look at the current Market Depth Ratio and Order Flow on all exchanges for BTC.
Looking at the 1% of orders, the MDR is currently approx +20%. These levels were seen during the previous dip down around Feb 28 - Mar 6, after which price started a steady climb. And then again for a short period of time around Apr 4. We had a very strong MDR spike to +30% to defend 60k, but it failed.
Looking at the 2% of orders, the MDR levels are approx +10%, which is what we observed each time the price dipped down in the past 3 months. There is actually a lot more open buy orders than sell orders. The selling is slightly above average compared to the last month, but there isn't actually much happening. It seems to be a stand off and people are waiting for the expiry of BTC @ 8AM UTC today. What supports this? The insane rise of USDT dominance in the last few hours. Everybody is converting to USDT and this is creating a standoff. The selling pressure has mostly resided but buyers are not convinced of this to be the bottom.
Looking at the 5% or orders, we have not seen the MDR indicating such strong buying pressure since the beginning of this year. We are the same levels as last week of Jan 2021, when the price was falling after a push up. There is a significant amount of buy orders placed at the lower level price level of 45k - 47k, and the chunk of the sell orders are around 52k.
But what does this all mean? To sum it up, the chunk of the large buy orders right now are waiting around 45k - 47k, so you can bet the price is going there. We saw that area as a good support in Feb. Will it drop further? Most likely a slow decent downwards to 38k - 41k range. But that decent will be slow and mostly sideways for a while. BTC dominance has almost reached 50%, which is what we saw 3 years ago, and this is a great sign of alt coin push. During that sideways movement, we will see coins like ETH and others leading the rally upwards.
I would say this, first and foremost to myself as a reminder, that do not make any judgements just yet, wait for a good pattern to emerge, and keep eyes on the MDR, OFR, and total Volume.
Good news:
- chinese hashrate is slowly rising again to the levels before Apr 16
- coinbase just listed tether, USDT
- talks of renewable/clean energy related to bitcoin mining
- Binance futures is showing a healthy support around 46-49k
Bad news:
- majority of news sources and websites have a negative sentiment on bitcoin price, calling for 30k price for dramatic headlines, causing new buyers to wait till 40k.
- "Reports That Bitcoin Creator is an International Drug and Arms Dealer Resurface" - rumours, yet still damaging
BTC days are not done, this is a correction as every other, touching the 100-day MA and seeing what happens (a test we haven't seen since before Nov 2020 - the bull run start). So stop worrying, and have some patience, where one door closes, another opens.
Looking at the 1% of orders, the MDR is currently approx +20%. These levels were seen during the previous dip down around Feb 28 - Mar 6, after which price started a steady climb. And then again for a short period of time around Apr 4. We had a very strong MDR spike to +30% to defend 60k, but it failed.
Looking at the 2% of orders, the MDR levels are approx +10%, which is what we observed each time the price dipped down in the past 3 months. There is actually a lot more open buy orders than sell orders. The selling is slightly above average compared to the last month, but there isn't actually much happening. It seems to be a stand off and people are waiting for the expiry of BTC @ 8AM UTC today. What supports this? The insane rise of USDT dominance in the last few hours. Everybody is converting to USDT and this is creating a standoff. The selling pressure has mostly resided but buyers are not convinced of this to be the bottom.
Looking at the 5% or orders, we have not seen the MDR indicating such strong buying pressure since the beginning of this year. We are the same levels as last week of Jan 2021, when the price was falling after a push up. There is a significant amount of buy orders placed at the lower level price level of 45k - 47k, and the chunk of the sell orders are around 52k.
But what does this all mean? To sum it up, the chunk of the large buy orders right now are waiting around 45k - 47k, so you can bet the price is going there. We saw that area as a good support in Feb. Will it drop further? Most likely a slow decent downwards to 38k - 41k range. But that decent will be slow and mostly sideways for a while. BTC dominance has almost reached 50%, which is what we saw 3 years ago, and this is a great sign of alt coin push. During that sideways movement, we will see coins like ETH and others leading the rally upwards.
I would say this, first and foremost to myself as a reminder, that do not make any judgements just yet, wait for a good pattern to emerge, and keep eyes on the MDR, OFR, and total Volume.
Good news:
- chinese hashrate is slowly rising again to the levels before Apr 16
- coinbase just listed tether, USDT
- talks of renewable/clean energy related to bitcoin mining
- Binance futures is showing a healthy support around 46-49k
Bad news:
- majority of news sources and websites have a negative sentiment on bitcoin price, calling for 30k price for dramatic headlines, causing new buyers to wait till 40k.
- "Reports That Bitcoin Creator is an International Drug and Arms Dealer Resurface" - rumours, yet still damaging
BTC days are not done, this is a correction as every other, touching the 100-day MA and seeing what happens (a test we haven't seen since before Nov 2020 - the bull run start). So stop worrying, and have some patience, where one door closes, another opens.