This weekly close will be very important to understand where BTC is at currently. It is not odd or unexpected to see price action struggle to break previous all time highs and based on the 4 year cycle theory we technically shouldn't see a break until OCT/NOV 2024.
Although, I must say this cycle does seem to be different than previous cycle due to the addition of ETFs, but lets examine the facts in the charts.
The first thing I have added is two Fibonacci trends from our low (15.4k) and the (19.5k) level to our current high. Both trends are validated therefore they should both be examined equally.
The main levels just based solely on price action are $61.3k, $57-58k, $52-53k, $48-49k.
Now we need to examine how important the ATH level is for the weekly close. Back in 2021 the wick high was established at 69K with the candle close establishing a level at $65.5k. With our recent break of the ATH we notice the weekly candle closed below the 69K ATH level showing some weakness at these levels "no candle close ath breakout".
Then we tested the $61.3k monthly level as support, held it and rallied back to the previous ATH. This time we did manage to close a weekly candle above our previous ATH "attempting ath break".
But we have seen a very swift "railroad track" rejection on the weekly. This could lead us to a "failed ath breakout" + a deviation with the trend that was trying to be established.
Therefore, we need to see this weekly candle close back above 69K to flip old candle body resistance into new support. If price is not successful in doing so it would not be surprising to see consolidation/lower price targets for a while to reset most indicators.
Although, I must say this cycle does seem to be different than previous cycle due to the addition of ETFs, but lets examine the facts in the charts.
The first thing I have added is two Fibonacci trends from our low (15.4k) and the (19.5k) level to our current high. Both trends are validated therefore they should both be examined equally.
The main levels just based solely on price action are $61.3k, $57-58k, $52-53k, $48-49k.
Now we need to examine how important the ATH level is for the weekly close. Back in 2021 the wick high was established at 69K with the candle close establishing a level at $65.5k. With our recent break of the ATH we notice the weekly candle closed below the 69K ATH level showing some weakness at these levels "no candle close ath breakout".
Then we tested the $61.3k monthly level as support, held it and rallied back to the previous ATH. This time we did manage to close a weekly candle above our previous ATH "attempting ath break".
But we have seen a very swift "railroad track" rejection on the weekly. This could lead us to a "failed ath breakout" + a deviation with the trend that was trying to be established.
Therefore, we need to see this weekly candle close back above 69K to flip old candle body resistance into new support. If price is not successful in doing so it would not be surprising to see consolidation/lower price targets for a while to reset most indicators.