#BTC Snapshot to read after you watch the Bitboy arrest.
Bitcoin is obviously not as exciting as BitBoy with a gun rattling on about the Houston mafia, nothing is. In fact right now Bitcoin isn't exciting at all.
Most of 2023 saw us building a bullish broadening wedge (yellow line) but the failure to break through the $31.5k line gave us a new upper trendline turning our bullish broadening wedge into a bearish ascending wedge which broke down dramatically back on Aug 18th.
This move has given us a 6 week period of consolidation with the order block $24.8k-$25.8k providing strong support and a sell block $27 - $27.8k capping the range.
The last test on the upper range followed the confirmation of a rate pause on Sept. 21st, however the bullish news failed to see us break up, instead we dipped back into mid range.
The technicals are flat, we played out the ascending wedge and brreakdown and are now looking to build a new set of technicals however at the momet the only thing we can confirm is the strong order block support, so our best estimation is that short term the range holds.
However OnChain is flagging an increase in Whale sales after almost a year of accumulation. Glassnodes Trend Accumulation score tracks BTC purchases and sales weighting them by size so whale buys dicatate the direction of the market.
According to the data August saw us shift from accumulation to sales with this trend continuing into September. The investor activity is broken up into different groups to give you an idea of what different types of investors are doing from Mega Whales (>10,000 BTC) to small retail (<1 BTC). Interestingly in early September the mega whales shifted back to accumulation. We saw Microstrategy for example make purchases around
27K
, however they are now pivoting back to mild selling which is likely bearish for price. If this trend continues or if we see the light orange selling of the whales turn into dark red selling then we will definately test the bottom of the supportig order block!
How this pattern develops, and the potential shape the market is going to take, depends on the two major (agenda driven) narratives unfolding in the crypto press - the bullish ETF approval story or the bearish binance vs SEC narrative. While both these stories are multi layered, overblown and weaponised we can really distill this situation down to one word; regulation.
Effectively mid to long term outcomes here will depend on how the regulatory picture plays out in the States and potentially China. Without rehashing too much old news China's blanket ban seems to be shifting and the arrival of BlackRock into the BTC ETF space has forced the SEC's hand - regulation is now a top priority.
TL:DR downside likely short term as whales look to be selling. Mid - long term ETF approval will be undeniably bullish.
Most of 2023 saw us building a bullish broadening wedge (yellow line) but the failure to break through the $31.5k line gave us a new upper trendline turning our bullish broadening wedge into a bearish ascending wedge which broke down dramatically back on Aug 18th.
This move has given us a 6 week period of consolidation with the order block $24.8k-$25.8k providing strong support and a sell block $27 - $27.8k capping the range.
The last test on the upper range followed the confirmation of a rate pause on Sept. 21st, however the bullish news failed to see us break up, instead we dipped back into mid range.
The technicals are flat, we played out the ascending wedge and brreakdown and are now looking to build a new set of technicals however at the momet the only thing we can confirm is the strong order block support, so our best estimation is that short term the range holds.
However OnChain is flagging an increase in Whale sales after almost a year of accumulation. Glassnodes Trend Accumulation score tracks BTC purchases and sales weighting them by size so whale buys dicatate the direction of the market.
According to the data August saw us shift from accumulation to sales with this trend continuing into September. The investor activity is broken up into different groups to give you an idea of what different types of investors are doing from Mega Whales (>10,000 BTC) to small retail (<1 BTC). Interestingly in early September the mega whales shifted back to accumulation. We saw Microstrategy for example make purchases around
27K
, however they are now pivoting back to mild selling which is likely bearish for price. If this trend continues or if we see the light orange selling of the whales turn into dark red selling then we will definately test the bottom of the supportig order block! How this pattern develops, and the potential shape the market is going to take, depends on the two major (agenda driven) narratives unfolding in the crypto press - the bullish ETF approval story or the bearish binance vs SEC narrative. While both these stories are multi layered, overblown and weaponised we can really distill this situation down to one word; regulation.
Effectively mid to long term outcomes here will depend on how the regulatory picture plays out in the States and potentially China. Without rehashing too much old news China's blanket ban seems to be shifting and the arrival of BlackRock into the BTC ETF space has forced the SEC's hand - regulation is now a top priority.
TL:DR downside likely short term as whales look to be selling. Mid - long term ETF approval will be undeniably bullish.