thinkcrypto

Bitcoin Walk-Through, No reason for a Party YET!

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hello fellow Cryptopians,

After yesterdays and last couple of days hard drop , we have a slight push upwards. As you might already noticed: A market moves in waves, as well up as down. The Highs and Lows indicate what direction the market is moving to and at the moment that is down. My opinion is that we are just making a 'Lower High', we have to close above $9800 for a sign of a trend reversal. but I will explain more about that situation further on.

First I want to point out some things that for me are quite scary and concerning. As a lot of you. I'm also in quite a lot of Tele­gram groups. What I noticed is that the sentiment, after last nights push is very bullish and the GIFS with," Moon!", "When Lambo?" are al­ready are popping up.. While I would rather post GIFS with "When Homeless?" or "When Lada?".

Most people reflect it with the news that came from the G2O and also with that outcome I got my ques­tions. It looks like everybody or at least most people see it as a positive outcome. That they don't want to create another seperate regulation cause it's market share is still to small (less than one percent of all economic output on the highest peak) and they want to use existing digital currencies laws, every country is able to decide on its own policy towards cryptocurrency. In my opinion this is a negative outcome. For the market to grow I would like to see that corpo­rations like JP Morgan. BlackRock etc. can/will invest in the market. And without regulations, it's irresponsible for them to invest in this Market. So in this situation they will not invest big in this market.

Black Rock - "The volatility of the cryptocurrencies makes the gyrations in the U.S. equity market during the global financial crisis almost look placid."

Ok enough about news, fundamentals and my thoughts, lets get back to the TA standpoint and I'll try to explain the walk-through of Bitcoin and light-out the main events and where we are now from my stand point.

01. After the first Bull-run from Januari. The first main big bump occurred in Juli 2017, with the BitcoinCash ( BCC ) hard fork up coming "11. Uptrend - Year 200BC." green line held the drop .
02. China FUD floated the market. "12. Uptrend - BCC FUD" green line held the market drop and the new uptrend "13. Uptrend China FUD" started.
03. South Korea FUD floated the market and after we survived that we had the start of a major bull run to our ATH (All Time High) Bitcoin 19900$.

04. All time High of Bitcoin . Looks like years ago!
05. Bitcoin makes his first lower high and showed line first signs of weakness and Bears over rutting the market. and the downward channel "pink" lines is formed.
06. Britain test the uptrend line since the upward momentum after the China FUD.
07. Bitcoin tests the uptrend line since the upward momentum after the BCC FWD . But the China FUD uptrend became resistance.
08. Second lower High and the first attempt to break the down­ward channel "pink" lines. Off.
09. We had a break-out from the downward channel , but Bitcoin couldn't surpass it last lower High and created a double top , which is a bear sign. But a positive is that the "pink" top downward channel line because support instead of resistance.
10. The third LH lower High, but still trading above "pink" line of the downward channel

11. Uptrend "Year 200 BC" is trendline that started the upward momentum since beginning 2017 and held the BitcoinCash hard fork FUD.
12. Uptrend "BitcoinCash FUD" is the trendline that held the China FUD.
13. Uptrend "China FUD" is the trendline that held the South Korea FUD.
Comment: What can we make from all of this? Well, what I can make out of this; is that we are far from a party. The first hurdle to overcome is closing above 9800$ and than we can speak of a possible trend reversal, but still no party. Maybe you can put up some decoration, but don't invite people just yet. Before that can happen Bitcoin has to close above the "13. Uptrend - China FUD" so Bitcoin has a very long road ahead.

With Lots of Love,
ThinkCrypto
Thanks for the analysis. It is very hard to predict price movement of any commodity, let alone a crypto. But given the circumstances, where do you see BTC going for the next few weeks? Do you think its more probable for BTC to fall below 7,200 and test lower lows or do you think the price will roughly stay where it is with minor changes through the day, until we see an upward move?

Thanks again in advance.
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Well written analysis!
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Perfect summary ! Thanks
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