Talk about rules of alternation of the EW
Bitcoin is actually one of the most gainers asset in the 2021 or during this pandemic where we can see that it has been a huge gain since early of 2020 when the price met its bottom of this year's bull run. However, the $65000 became a huge hurdle for Bitcoin as we see the price lose a lot of momentum and the shifting from the the positive into negative sentiment was happening at that zone.
This time, I'll see it once again at the high time frame, where we can see it more clear to see the major support and resistance. Beside that, it's better for us to find the Elliott wave count at this high time frame. First of all, I want to give the highlight for the important of EW rules of thumb which is the rules of alternation. We know that based on the rules of alternation it states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. When I see the most possible way to count the wave of current structure, this is what I find it best to count it. I'll say the structure between March 2020 - September 2020 represented the wave 1 and 2 while the September 2020 - beginning of April 2021 represented the wave 3 in higher degree.
From the calculation on the above statement, we know that the wave 2 was only corrected at the .236 Fibonacci level based on the swing of total wave 1. If we see it occurred like that based on the rules of alternation, the wave 4 will likely to retrace for more than .236 Fibonacci level based on the swing of total wave 3. Although we've seen the price has now broken down below the .236 Fibonacci level, there are still a lot of supports below that we may see the price of the bitcoin will touches in the future. It can be the .382 , .50 , .618 or even .786 as the bottom of the wave 4 which no body can't even predict about it.
The third factor that may influence the current structure of the bitcoin is the red support trend line which we know it has held the price of this bullish cycle since the sub wave 2 of the wave 3. A break below this support trend line can be a burden for Bitcoin and most of the cryptocurrency in this world. We may see further downside movement toward the supports below. However, the price is now trending slightly below this support trend line and we must wait for this 2 days candle to close before we can assume whether the bears are in play or not.
My assumption is that if the price breaks below this support trend line, there will be much more bearish pressure to push the price lower to the minimum of golden pocket zone as there are a lot of confluence zone and that's where the POC is right now. Anticipate the liquidation zone too at around the $22000 to anticipate the mass fear occurs if the breaks below the red support trend line occurs.
This time, I'll see it once again at the high time frame, where we can see it more clear to see the major support and resistance. Beside that, it's better for us to find the Elliott wave count at this high time frame. First of all, I want to give the highlight for the important of EW rules of thumb which is the rules of alternation. We know that based on the rules of alternation it states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. When I see the most possible way to count the wave of current structure, this is what I find it best to count it. I'll say the structure between March 2020 - September 2020 represented the wave 1 and 2 while the September 2020 - beginning of April 2021 represented the wave 3 in higher degree.
From the calculation on the above statement, we know that the wave 2 was only corrected at the .236 Fibonacci level based on the swing of total wave 1. If we see it occurred like that based on the rules of alternation, the wave 4 will likely to retrace for more than .236 Fibonacci level based on the swing of total wave 3. Although we've seen the price has now broken down below the .236 Fibonacci level, there are still a lot of supports below that we may see the price of the bitcoin will touches in the future. It can be the .382 , .50 , .618 or even .786 as the bottom of the wave 4 which no body can't even predict about it.
The third factor that may influence the current structure of the bitcoin is the red support trend line which we know it has held the price of this bullish cycle since the sub wave 2 of the wave 3. A break below this support trend line can be a burden for Bitcoin and most of the cryptocurrency in this world. We may see further downside movement toward the supports below. However, the price is now trending slightly below this support trend line and we must wait for this 2 days candle to close before we can assume whether the bears are in play or not.
My assumption is that if the price breaks below this support trend line, there will be much more bearish pressure to push the price lower to the minimum of golden pocket zone as there are a lot of confluence zone and that's where the POC is right now. Anticipate the liquidation zone too at around the $22000 to anticipate the mass fear occurs if the breaks below the red support trend line occurs.
