Hello friends.
We have shorted Bitcoin with a modest size. Our reasoning for this trade is that the new and surprisingly popular "Bitcoin to 1 million dollars in 90 days" narrative spawned by the unintelligible "Balaji" will lead to a correction since it is a sign of retail involvement. His narrative does not make any actual sense, considering that a collapse in the banking structure would delete dollar liquidity and send bitcoin down massively along with other risk assets. What he would actually need for Bitcoin to rise massively would be the Fed printing a couple of quintillion dollars within the next 90 days. The Fed has never in and will almost certainly never accelerate its printing this fast, so we can rest assured that this unhinged theory has less than a 0.000000000000001% chance of materializing.
Despite the fact that the "Balaji" narrative is incoherent and self-contradicting, many have fallen in love with it, and now retail is crowding into the long trade. Further evidence of retail crowding into the long trade comes in the form of the aggregated open interest, which rose substantially from ~6.5 billion USD at the lows to a present value of ~9 billion USD. A strong open interest increase tends to be retail opening long positions, from what we have observed.
We expect, based on a combination of the volume profile and wave theory, that prices will decline to the $25,000 level before reversing higher. We do not think the echo bubble has been completed yet because there would need to be more broad-based delusional retail speculation. Currently, the only delusional speculation occurring is in the Bitcoin market. The altcoin market would also likely need to form a similar wave before the echo bubble fully terminates and we short with actual size.
We have shorted Bitcoin with a modest size. Our reasoning for this trade is that the new and surprisingly popular "Bitcoin to 1 million dollars in 90 days" narrative spawned by the unintelligible "Balaji" will lead to a correction since it is a sign of retail involvement. His narrative does not make any actual sense, considering that a collapse in the banking structure would delete dollar liquidity and send bitcoin down massively along with other risk assets. What he would actually need for Bitcoin to rise massively would be the Fed printing a couple of quintillion dollars within the next 90 days. The Fed has never in and will almost certainly never accelerate its printing this fast, so we can rest assured that this unhinged theory has less than a 0.000000000000001% chance of materializing.
Despite the fact that the "Balaji" narrative is incoherent and self-contradicting, many have fallen in love with it, and now retail is crowding into the long trade. Further evidence of retail crowding into the long trade comes in the form of the aggregated open interest, which rose substantially from ~6.5 billion USD at the lows to a present value of ~9 billion USD. A strong open interest increase tends to be retail opening long positions, from what we have observed.
We expect, based on a combination of the volume profile and wave theory, that prices will decline to the $25,000 level before reversing higher. We do not think the echo bubble has been completed yet because there would need to be more broad-based delusional retail speculation. Currently, the only delusional speculation occurring is in the Bitcoin market. The altcoin market would also likely need to form a similar wave before the echo bubble fully terminates and we short with actual size.
Trade closed manually:
Closed at profit, gg