BTC: hidden daily/weekly bullish and monthly bearish divergence!
Starting out on the daily first.
The most notable thing is the obvious. We've had nothing but bearish doji's for the past 4 days in a row. This to me not only shows a divided market, but also shows potential for a small buying opportunity. (What goes up, must come down. What goes down, can go up). I know everyone and their mother is ultra bearish right now, and let me say that in the medium term, I FULLY concur.
In the short term however, we can see that we are setting up for a bullish divergence on the Stoch RS on both DAILY and WEEKLY timeframes. With that said, this is probably a long shot but it seems like 10200 is being defended aggressively AND the 23 and 25 day moving averages have provided support for daily closes on the daily tf.
What this means to me is that based on the Fib Trend starting from the 2nd lower low (9300), to the last higher high (10900) and back to the last lower low (9900), we are getting squeezed currently between the 0.236 fib and the above mentioned moving averages. IF we can squeeze past them and close above it, we are seeing the two likely candidates (in my opinion) of zones to break out towards. the 0.5 and the 0.618... And seeing that we are DEFINITELY in a flat 12345 correction, the chances of us getting past 0.618 is honestly slim.
There is a VERY heavy resistance zone on the orange trend line that we have not been able to progress above the past two higher highs and I don't think we press above them. If we do, I will have to reconsider, but I see the top for a while at around 10600 to 10800...
NOW... Let's talk about the long term because frankly I see us doing a pretty HUGE correction sooner than later.
-First of, let's eye two things. the first is the 21 EMA on the monthly. EVERY SINGLE TIME THE PRICE CONSOLIDATES WE ***ALWAYS*** CHECK THE 21 EMA. ALWAYS... AS IN EVERY... SINGLE... TIME. PERIOD.
We may hover right above it without touching it, may even blow right past it and hit a completely different moving average. But price action ALWAYS trends towards it. PERIOD.
-Second big thing to notice on the monthly is that the Stoch is stupid bearish right now. I mean, it couldn't be any more bearish if we asked it to be.
There should be SERIOUS red flags drawn for all of you out there thinking we moon right now.
FYI The 21 EMA is currently sitting right around 9400-ish currently.
This one is to show the Stoch RSI on the monthly timeframe:
I'll be completely frank here. I PERSONALLY believe ultimately we correct to right around 7k - 8k, and there is even the possibility that we draw back to 6k before the next parabolic sequence above 14k happens. For now, that's just my opinion. I am open to letting price action dictate that, I do not trade with emotion. I trade the technical side of where the price is and where it can go.
In short:
-Expect a small bullish leg up to maybe around 10,600 to 10,800 (because of weekly/daily bullish divergence on Stoch).
-DO NOT BE CAUGHT DEAD IN A LONG PAST THOSE TWO PRICE RANGES.
-Enter a short between 10.6 and 10.8 and STAY there for a bit.
-IF price breaks above 10.9k, these are invalidated.
-Expect price action to be very choppy and very drawn out possibly for the next couple of weeks. Expect to be in a position for a while if you choose to get into one.
-STOP LOSS AT 11k for your short from 10.6 to 10.8
The most notable thing is the obvious. We've had nothing but bearish doji's for the past 4 days in a row. This to me not only shows a divided market, but also shows potential for a small buying opportunity. (What goes up, must come down. What goes down, can go up). I know everyone and their mother is ultra bearish right now, and let me say that in the medium term, I FULLY concur.
In the short term however, we can see that we are setting up for a bullish divergence on the Stoch RS on both DAILY and WEEKLY timeframes. With that said, this is probably a long shot but it seems like 10200 is being defended aggressively AND the 23 and 25 day moving averages have provided support for daily closes on the daily tf.
What this means to me is that based on the Fib Trend starting from the 2nd lower low (9300), to the last higher high (10900) and back to the last lower low (9900), we are getting squeezed currently between the 0.236 fib and the above mentioned moving averages. IF we can squeeze past them and close above it, we are seeing the two likely candidates (in my opinion) of zones to break out towards. the 0.5 and the 0.618... And seeing that we are DEFINITELY in a flat 12345 correction, the chances of us getting past 0.618 is honestly slim.
There is a VERY heavy resistance zone on the orange trend line that we have not been able to progress above the past two higher highs and I don't think we press above them. If we do, I will have to reconsider, but I see the top for a while at around 10600 to 10800...
NOW... Let's talk about the long term because frankly I see us doing a pretty HUGE correction sooner than later.
-First of, let's eye two things. the first is the 21 EMA on the monthly. EVERY SINGLE TIME THE PRICE CONSOLIDATES WE ***ALWAYS*** CHECK THE 21 EMA. ALWAYS... AS IN EVERY... SINGLE... TIME. PERIOD.
We may hover right above it without touching it, may even blow right past it and hit a completely different moving average. But price action ALWAYS trends towards it. PERIOD.
-Second big thing to notice on the monthly is that the Stoch is stupid bearish right now. I mean, it couldn't be any more bearish if we asked it to be.
There should be SERIOUS red flags drawn for all of you out there thinking we moon right now.
FYI The 21 EMA is currently sitting right around 9400-ish currently.
This one is to show the Stoch RSI on the monthly timeframe:
I'll be completely frank here. I PERSONALLY believe ultimately we correct to right around 7k - 8k, and there is even the possibility that we draw back to 6k before the next parabolic sequence above 14k happens. For now, that's just my opinion. I am open to letting price action dictate that, I do not trade with emotion. I trade the technical side of where the price is and where it can go.
In short:
-Expect a small bullish leg up to maybe around 10,600 to 10,800 (because of weekly/daily bullish divergence on Stoch).
-DO NOT BE CAUGHT DEAD IN A LONG PAST THOSE TWO PRICE RANGES.
-Enter a short between 10.6 and 10.8 and STAY there for a bit.
-IF price breaks above 10.9k, these are invalidated.
-Expect price action to be very choppy and very drawn out possibly for the next couple of weeks. Expect to be in a position for a while if you choose to get into one.
-STOP LOSS AT 11k for your short from 10.6 to 10.8
Comment:
Well I was off on the call of getting above 10.2k. I did say that it was unlikely, but a possibility.
We are down now. I fully expect to hit the 21 EMA on weekly at this point.
We WILL be chopping around 9600 to 9900 for a bit till next leg down.
I advise you to just stay in your short positions and ride down to the 21 EMA. Take some profit out there and let the price build up before another short opportunity presents itself.
We are down now. I fully expect to hit the 21 EMA on weekly at this point.
We WILL be chopping around 9600 to 9900 for a bit till next leg down.
I advise you to just stay in your short positions and ride down to the 21 EMA. Take some profit out there and let the price build up before another short opportunity presents itself.
Now, at this rate it may take us two centuries to move up to 10.4, but I guess its playing it safe (for once).
I am getting more and more sure about the move higher, but don't expect too much out of it.
Seriously... I think we MAY get to 10.6k by the time its all over and done with before the huge drop.