Bitcoin $36k Retest Soon.. Or Further Capitulation?
One might be reading this title and thinking to themselves how might something thats already down 70+ percent in the last 8 months - not to mention 10+ percent down in the last week, possibly capitulate any further?
Well Bitcoin has finally done something that is worth note this week in the fact that if we take a fibonacci retracement of the all time high down to the low that we hit back in March of 2020, we will see that price has just perfectly touched the 78% fib level on this weekly candle.
The 78% retrace level as we all know, are areas of deep retracement. According to odds, the odds are that we are in fib areas where historically prices like to find bottoms (or tops if looking at inverse scale).
As further history calls, reactionary price action typically ensues at a 78% retracement level often followed by one last and often weak capitulation below the 78% retrace level and ultimately down near our 88% level.
It is impossible to predict where exactly it may go when and if this capitaulation occurs. It could go below 88%.. it could stop well shy of 88%. But what I do know is that once price finds itself BACK ABOVE the 78% retrace level, and confirms bullish support upon it, that typically means at the very least a retest of the 50% retracement level is in store. In this case that would be around the $36k level. $36400 to be precise.
It should be noted, this is just more commentary than pure technical analysis as it is impossible to predict the exact path of price action over a period of coming weeks and months. But based off of one's experience with fibonacci, one can see the same scenarios rhyming with each other over and over again.
This is a weekly chart so it makes the respect of the fibonacci levels that more significant. In the short term, keep an eye on this $17,757 price level.
If it holds (which we do not know if it will), look for a quick retest of $28k.
If $17,757 breaks, $11k bitcoin is in the cards and that would be our ideal low-risk long area.
The current volatility of the stock market will have a say in the short term for the BTC price direction as well.
Well Bitcoin has finally done something that is worth note this week in the fact that if we take a fibonacci retracement of the all time high down to the low that we hit back in March of 2020, we will see that price has just perfectly touched the 78% fib level on this weekly candle.
The 78% retrace level as we all know, are areas of deep retracement. According to odds, the odds are that we are in fib areas where historically prices like to find bottoms (or tops if looking at inverse scale).
As further history calls, reactionary price action typically ensues at a 78% retracement level often followed by one last and often weak capitulation below the 78% retrace level and ultimately down near our 88% level.
It is impossible to predict where exactly it may go when and if this capitaulation occurs. It could go below 88%.. it could stop well shy of 88%. But what I do know is that once price finds itself BACK ABOVE the 78% retrace level, and confirms bullish support upon it, that typically means at the very least a retest of the 50% retracement level is in store. In this case that would be around the $36k level. $36400 to be precise.
It should be noted, this is just more commentary than pure technical analysis as it is impossible to predict the exact path of price action over a period of coming weeks and months. But based off of one's experience with fibonacci, one can see the same scenarios rhyming with each other over and over again.
This is a weekly chart so it makes the respect of the fibonacci levels that more significant. In the short term, keep an eye on this $17,757 price level.
If it holds (which we do not know if it will), look for a quick retest of $28k.
If $17,757 breaks, $11k bitcoin is in the cards and that would be our ideal low-risk long area.
The current volatility of the stock market will have a say in the short term for the BTC price direction as well.
