BTC - Starting to run out of options. 7300-7500 in play
In my previous ideas I had the price slowly dripping down over time. a slightly bullish scenario DOES exist where point C and even point B on the harmonic crab pattern we are likely in if we go lower than current B and head back up slightly... BUT, it's starting to run out of space for the eventual drop to D. Which likely means that it's not going to be a sustained drip down, it could be a sharper move down to correction.
Once again, if B and C are extended, it will give it a bit more time in consolidation, but will also signify a longer/faster drop. So keep in mind that points B and C are still possibly forming and not locked in just yet possibly. IF the B and C is correct, and we headed for D, we will get a fairly sharp move down soon. Anywhere around 7300 to 7600 has potential for the rebound.
How much of a rebound from there? Hard to say. Buying has been anemic, even considering the last bout of impulses going up. We couldn't even fully complete the bearish shark pattern fully in the previous harmonic pattern, although honestly I did expect at least a little bit more buying around here.
But again, nothing is set in stone just yet.
And again, I will reiterate that during a bearish market cycle like we are currently in don't always expect the fib points on the harmonics playing out (especially on the high sides) to even make it to where they're supposed to be. THIS is why we don't long in bullish patterns until AFTER we believe it has completed point D. The risk/reward ratio is just too high to try to play between the points in the harmonic. If in doubt, go short.
I'm also noticing that we are STILL practically 2.5 longs to 1 shorts ratio. This is why I am still bearish. Along with the fact that 11-day ma on daily has been stiff arming us now for the past three days setting up a three-black crows candlestick pair which is also highly bearish.
I've been telling you guys this is NOT a scenario where you want to be in a long position just yet. There is still more selling coming if for nothing but to try to liquidate the majority of the longs that have hopes for the moon currently.
Once again, if B and C are extended, it will give it a bit more time in consolidation, but will also signify a longer/faster drop. So keep in mind that points B and C are still possibly forming and not locked in just yet possibly. IF the B and C is correct, and we headed for D, we will get a fairly sharp move down soon. Anywhere around 7300 to 7600 has potential for the rebound.
How much of a rebound from there? Hard to say. Buying has been anemic, even considering the last bout of impulses going up. We couldn't even fully complete the bearish shark pattern fully in the previous harmonic pattern, although honestly I did expect at least a little bit more buying around here.
But again, nothing is set in stone just yet.
And again, I will reiterate that during a bearish market cycle like we are currently in don't always expect the fib points on the harmonics playing out (especially on the high sides) to even make it to where they're supposed to be. THIS is why we don't long in bullish patterns until AFTER we believe it has completed point D. The risk/reward ratio is just too high to try to play between the points in the harmonic. If in doubt, go short.
I'm also noticing that we are STILL practically 2.5 longs to 1 shorts ratio. This is why I am still bearish. Along with the fact that 11-day ma on daily has been stiff arming us now for the past three days setting up a three-black crows candlestick pair which is also highly bearish.
I've been telling you guys this is NOT a scenario where you want to be in a long position just yet. There is still more selling coming if for nothing but to try to liquidate the majority of the longs that have hopes for the moon currently.
Comment:
last update on this idea, I will post the majority of this in a new update.
While the buying has been mediocre, and price has struggled to make any dents up, there is a noticeable amount of buying right at around the 0.618 fib which is right new 8k.
8k seems to be being defended a LOT... Suspiciously so... Whenever price fails to move down to complete a specific harmonic, I always start rethinking potential strategies. The fact is we should be pulling downwards a lot faster than we are because price is starting to run out of room to make the fibs work on the bullish crab pattern I felt we were in (according to fibs between highs and lows).
NVT is STILL signaling weakness in volume to transaction ratio, so we should keep an eye on that.
However, the possibility DOES exist of moving much higher than anticipated, right around the 8800 range if we fail to make a strong move down soon. If 8k keeps being defended like it is now, enough buying power could emerge for a strong move up.
Keep in mind, patterns and price are NOT a pre-determined thing. The market IS dynamic. You have to keep up with it. What is bearish today, can become bullish tomorrow and vice versa.
Worst case scenario for shorts is that 8k is defended very strongly. This would mean we don't go down to 7300, but around 8.8k instead (which is how a move up would likely place point A of a BEARISH harmonic pattern at.
I know what you're thinking, how is a strong move up NOT bullish? Easy... It means that the correction is not fully over, but there was enough buying to sustain the relationship between supply and demand.
Screenshot of what a breakout to 8800 would look like:
What I want you all to understand though is that as bullish as it seems, it makes the correction much larger in the end
I wouldn't put it past the futures ecosystem to cover the top range of 8700 gaps, which are as of yet still gapped.
While the buying has been mediocre, and price has struggled to make any dents up, there is a noticeable amount of buying right at around the 0.618 fib which is right new 8k.
8k seems to be being defended a LOT... Suspiciously so... Whenever price fails to move down to complete a specific harmonic, I always start rethinking potential strategies. The fact is we should be pulling downwards a lot faster than we are because price is starting to run out of room to make the fibs work on the bullish crab pattern I felt we were in (according to fibs between highs and lows).
NVT is STILL signaling weakness in volume to transaction ratio, so we should keep an eye on that.
However, the possibility DOES exist of moving much higher than anticipated, right around the 8800 range if we fail to make a strong move down soon. If 8k keeps being defended like it is now, enough buying power could emerge for a strong move up.
Keep in mind, patterns and price are NOT a pre-determined thing. The market IS dynamic. You have to keep up with it. What is bearish today, can become bullish tomorrow and vice versa.
Worst case scenario for shorts is that 8k is defended very strongly. This would mean we don't go down to 7300, but around 8.8k instead (which is how a move up would likely place point A of a BEARISH harmonic pattern at.
I know what you're thinking, how is a strong move up NOT bullish? Easy... It means that the correction is not fully over, but there was enough buying to sustain the relationship between supply and demand.
Screenshot of what a breakout to 8800 would look like:
What I want you all to understand though is that as bullish as it seems, it makes the correction much larger in the end
I wouldn't put it past the futures ecosystem to cover the top range of 8700 gaps, which are as of yet still gapped.
With less than 30 min to close the daily candle, it has not even TOUCHED the 11 day ma on daily. The long term moving averages below it on daily are providing some resistance at the moment, but there cannot be a bull run until it breaks through the 11 day MA.
I will be adding to my short position if we do go higher and try to test that 11 day MA... Just not seeing much power to push through. If we do break upside of it at daily close, Is rather stop loss at that point than miss an opportunity to profit from its weakness at the moment.