Bitcoin Daily Update (day 209)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “There is still room for one more bounce...if we don’t bounce then four entries have been outlined below” / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Testing $6,550 for resistance. Support was found at $6,463
BTCUSDSHORTS: Attempting to make higher low, current candle is pulling back.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0222%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Testing 12 EMA for resistance. 26: +0.55%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is at $6,556 and 128 MA is right in line with the top of the descending triangle at $6,855.
Volume: Significant volume from yesterday’s selloff.
FIB’s: 0.886: $6,254 | 0.786: $6,384 | 0.618: $6,603
Candlestick analysis: Potential hanging man on 4h with 20 minutes to close. Potential hanging man on 12h. Potential shooting star on 1h.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud = $6,537 | 4h cloud held as support. Flat top at $6,755 indicates strong resistance and is in line with TDST level | 1d cloud = $6,830 and has held as resistance over the past couple months.
TD’ Sequential: Daily R2 = R1 | 12h = R7 | 4h = G3 | 1h = G2 > G1 after G9
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity area of the past 12 months.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +2.36% | 24h: +1.98% | 1w: +2.27% | 2w: +0.77% | 1m: -3.06%
Bollinger Bands: Top band = $6,753
Trendline: Top of descending triangle waits at ~$6,800
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up = $6,830 | Down = $6,071
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly
ADX: ADX as support which indicates trendless market should be coming to an end
Chaikin Money Flow: Breaking through 0.05 on the weekly
RSI (30 setting): W: 49 | D: 47
Stoch: Pulling back from overbought zones on the daily. Currently trying to make a bullish re cross on the weekly.

Summary: The 4hour cloud held strong as support and none of the entries I outlined yesterday were triggered. Instead we are getting that bounce that I have been waiting for. We are coming up on a massive cluster of resistance that should provide a great area to build a short position.

The resistance cluster will be coming from:

12 day EMA: $6,535
1h Ichimoku Cloud: $6,537
50 day MA: $6,556
26 day EMA: $6,564
0.618 FIB: $6,603
Top of the daily Bollinger Band: $6,753
4h Ichimoku Cloud: $6,755
Top of descending triangle: $6,800 - $6,850
1 day Ichimoku Cloud: $6,830
Up Fractal: $6,830
128 day MA: $6,855

You can either start to enter now with the plan to add up to $6,800 with a stop at $6,900 - $7,000 or you can wait to try and enter at a better price. I am going to wait myself and hope to enter a large position around $6,800. If that doesn’t happen then I will be watching for reversal candles to provide an entry.

Comment:

Here is an entry to keep an eye on:

Comment:

4h tweezer top and hanging man has provided a low risk entry. I am short BTC:USD from $6,511 and ETH:USD from $220.9. Setting very tight stop losses (<1%) and will be reopening around $6,800 if they get triggered.

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