Bitcoin Daily Update (day 208)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “The current pullback should bring us to $6,444 - $6,550 and what happens from there will be extremely important. If the bounce creates a lower high below $6,835 then it will be a tremendous shorting opportunity.” / sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,365 - $6,385 | Weak R: $6,440 - $6,463 | Strong R: $6,550 & $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to bounce from 27,136. Trendline waiting at 25,135. Daily cloud shows strong resistance at 28,600
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.75% | 26: -2.13% both are acting as resistance
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -2.13% and acting as resistance | 128: -6.82%
Volume: More volume from yesterday’s sell off then the rally from $6,400 - $6,800. Indicates that supply is stronger than demand at these prices.
FIB’s: 0.886: $6,254 | 0.786: $6,384 | 0.618: $6,603
Candlestick analysis: Bullish wick on current 1h candle indicates good support. Weekly candle is re exploring last weeks wick.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of 4h cloud is at $6,332. Flat top at $6,749 indicates strong resistance | Flat bottom on 1h cloud at $6,466 should be strong resistance
TD’ Sequential: 1w: R2 = R1 | 1d: R1 | 12h: R6 | 4h: R4 | 1h: G4
Visible Range: Locked inside highest liquidity zone over the past year. Once this range is broken the next move will be violent.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.6% | 24h: -2.66% | 1w: +1.42% | 2w: +1.98% | 1m: -3.98%
Bollinger Bands: Broke down MA, will it close below? If it does then expect the bottom band to be retested at $6,134. Tightest BB Width has been since the consolidation leading into the Bitcoin Cash' hardfork in April of 2017.
Trendline: Have drawn a new triangle inside the larger descending triangle. The bottom trendline is at $6,246 and represents a crucial area of support.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: New up at $6,833 | Down at $6,118
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX is at support which indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W: 48.71 | D: 46.4 | Firmly believe that we need to return to ~30 before bear market ends.
Stochastic: Sell signal on daily followed by divergence, indicates that it was not a fake out and that we should return to oversold levels before rallying again.

Summary: Now is the time to pay very close attention. We created yet another lower high on 9/21 and have fully retraced that rally. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post what happens from here will be very important.

There is still room for one more bounce that could take us back to $6,550. If that happens then I think it will be the best shorting opportunity in months. However, there would still be a possibility that the price rallied through that area to retest the top of the descending triangle one last time at $6,800.

If we fail to bounce from here then I have outlined four entries below:

Sell 4h cloud breakdown
Sell weekly R2 if/when it falls below last weeks R1
Sell green triangle breakdown
Sell yellow triangle breakdown

If I take those entries then I will likely enter 25% of my position at each checkpoint.