Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 208)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “The current pullback should bring us to $6,444 - $6,550 and what happens from there will be extremely important. If the bounce creates a lower high below $6,835 then it will be a tremendous shorting opportunity.” / sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,365 - $6,385 | Weak R: $6,440 - $6,463 | Strong R: $6,550 & $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to bounce from 27,136. Trendline waiting at 25,135. Daily cloud shows strong resistance at 28,600
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.75% | 26: -2.13% both are acting as resistance
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -2.13% and acting as resistance | 128: -6.82%
Volume: More volume from yesterday’s sell off then the rally from $6,400 - $6,800. Indicates that supply is stronger than demand at these prices.
FIB’s: 0.886: $6,254 | 0.786: $6,384 | 0.618: $6,603
Candlestick analysis: Bullish wick on current 1h candle indicates good support. Weekly candle is re exploring last weeks wick.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of 4h cloud is at $6,332. Flat top at $6,749 indicates strong resistance | Flat bottom on 1h cloud at $6,466 should be strong resistance
TD’ Sequential: 1w: R2 = R1 | 1d: R1 | 12h: R6 | 4h: R4 | 1h: G4
Visible Range: Locked inside highest liquidity zone over the past year. Once this range is broken the next move will be violent.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.6% | 24h: -2.66% | 1w: +1.42% | 2w: +1.98% | 1m: -3.98%
Bollinger Bands: Broke down MA, will it close below? If it does then expect the bottom band to be retested at $6,134. Tightest BB Width has been since the consolidation leading into the Bitcoin Cash' hardfork in April of 2017.
Trendline: Have drawn a new triangle inside the larger descending triangle . The bottom trendline is at $6,246 and represents a crucial area of support.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: New up at $6,833 | Down at $6,118
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX is at support which indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W: 48.71 | D: 46.4 | Firmly believe that we need to return to ~30 before bear market ends.
Stochastic: Sell signal on daily followed by divergence, indicates that it was not a fake out and that we should return to oversold levels before rallying again.

Summary: Now is the time to pay very close attention. We created yet another lower high on 9/21 and have fully retraced that rally. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post what happens from here will be very important.

There is still room for one more bounce that could take us back to $6,550. If that happens then I think it will be the best shorting opportunity in months. However, there would still be a possibility that the price rallied through that area to retest the top of the descending triangle one last time at $6,800.

If we fail to bounce from here then I have outlined four entries below:

Sell 4h cloud breakdown
Sell weekly R2 if/when it falls below last weeks R1
Sell green triangle breakdown
Sell yellow triangle breakdown

If I take those entries then I will likely enter 25% of my position at each checkpoint.
hey,
Appreciate the technical detailed analysis , crisp n clear interpretations , no random B.S or ideas...and prompt action plan....AWESOME!!!!

Where can i learn n practice more...abt the indicators...n strategies...honestly i dont know much abt ADX, Fractals, TD sequence, Chaikin money flow, ATR etc....
Panks
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez Piedpiper25
@Piedpiper25, To learn more about the indicators I use refer to my “Comprehensive Trading Process”:



To learn more about my overall strategy refer to my “Intermediate Trading Strategy”:



After you have a good understanding of my approach then I would recommend learning from the people who taught me: Tyler Jenks, Tone Vays, Peter Brandt, Nick “Crypto Core” and Josh “CarpeNoctom” Olszewicz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I&%3Bamp=&%3Bt=2367s

https://tonevays.com/learntrading

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbiWJYRg8luWHnmNkJRZEnw/videos

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt

https://www.tradingview.com/u/Nick_Core/

https://medium.com/@CarpeNoctom/toshimokus-trading-tips-tricks-f0ff5cc38cc8

After gaining a firm grasp of the fundamentals it will take time/experience. In order to gain the necessary experience risk management is vital. I will only risk 2% of my trading roll on an individual trade. I have gone on multiple 10 trade losing streaks and prudent risk management is the only reason I survived.

If you can survive for long enough then you will eventually develop your own style which allows you to thrive. Best of luck and don’t hesitate to reach out if you have more questions along the way.
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