Morning all, this is my bullish thesis for BTC for Q1 and Q2 and will post my bear case later.
I could see something like this playing out during the first 6 months of 2022, there is a pretty clean Ascending triangle on the monthly if we bounce here, leading into a H&S pattern with one final fakeout/max pain before the real breakout Q3/Q4 2022.
Where BTC currently finds itself at 40k is acting as a pretty strong area of support with a strong bid absorbing the selling pressure and there is plenty of bullish divergence to suggest a reversal, there has been a bit of volume come in on this last dump but it's still a little lacking which I suspect may be due to the fear in the market and the likelihood most are waiting for a sign of strength to get back in.
Both my bullish and bearish cases suggest further accumulation and the H&S + AT fake out into new ATH seems most likely for my bullish case.
This would allow the market to make decent gains whilst also creating a max fear scenario into an untapped area of liquidity which should be even greater if we do break upwards here.
It is possible we don't go as high as the 0.618 retracement and it will be important to keep an eye on key levels to look for signs of reversal which could still lead to the H&S setup. I think anything at or above the 0.382 will be enough to have a clear neckline and left and right shoulder formation.
Key levels to look out for a reversal.
$50861 (0.382 Fib), $51672 (Top of current range), $52676 (left shoulder), $54325 (0.5 Fib), $55709 (Key Daily OB), $57788 (0.618 Fib).
The ultra bullish case is we just pump from here and NEW ATHs come sooner than later but the macro environment doesn't seem to suggest that nor are there any strong narratives to onboard the kind of fiat needed to have that happen yet but we are only 11 days into 2022 so who knows what is around the corner.
Trade the chart not the feels. Take profit. Manage Risk.
I could see something like this playing out during the first 6 months of 2022, there is a pretty clean Ascending triangle on the monthly if we bounce here, leading into a H&S pattern with one final fakeout/max pain before the real breakout Q3/Q4 2022.
Where BTC currently finds itself at 40k is acting as a pretty strong area of support with a strong bid absorbing the selling pressure and there is plenty of bullish divergence to suggest a reversal, there has been a bit of volume come in on this last dump but it's still a little lacking which I suspect may be due to the fear in the market and the likelihood most are waiting for a sign of strength to get back in.
Both my bullish and bearish cases suggest further accumulation and the H&S + AT fake out into new ATH seems most likely for my bullish case.
This would allow the market to make decent gains whilst also creating a max fear scenario into an untapped area of liquidity which should be even greater if we do break upwards here.
It is possible we don't go as high as the 0.618 retracement and it will be important to keep an eye on key levels to look for signs of reversal which could still lead to the H&S setup. I think anything at or above the 0.382 will be enough to have a clear neckline and left and right shoulder formation.
Key levels to look out for a reversal.
$50861 (0.382 Fib), $51672 (Top of current range), $52676 (left shoulder), $54325 (0.5 Fib), $55709 (Key Daily OB), $57788 (0.618 Fib).
The ultra bullish case is we just pump from here and NEW ATHs come sooner than later but the macro environment doesn't seem to suggest that nor are there any strong narratives to onboard the kind of fiat needed to have that happen yet but we are only 11 days into 2022 so who knows what is around the corner.
Trade the chart not the feels. Take profit. Manage Risk.
