cryptoGats
Long

Bitcoin - What is going on? What's Next?

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
I was able to find the range that we are stuck in a couple of weeks ago. Let's continue to stay weeks ahead and let's plan for what's next. The way I see it these are the two likely scenarios:
1) If we stay around $8300 and then bounce up to retest the 200MA then we'll possibly go over it and onto the $9500 area (Which is big because that will signal a healthy retrace and advance.)
2) If we go down to $8100.00 or below then we are going to retest the bottom and possibly pierce it ( which will signal that we are going to $7k - $6500.) The range that we are stuck in is very strong both support and resistance have reinforcements and backups so it is hard to see who will win until a few more moves, but now you know the important milestones and what to look for in the next few hours or couple of days.
My personal view is that we have tested and retested the 200MA enough times that a big drop is due.

A little heads up.
In case you were wondering my lines of support and resistance are always there on the chart but I fade or brighten them as they become relevant or irrelevant.

Death Cross of Death
Also, as I have been saying for weeks the impending crossover of the 50MA sliding under the 200MA will affect the price negatively. Find below a link to a detailed post I did about the dreaded death cross on the 1D timeframe (Link name: Be careful, this is about to happen). The point is that If we avoid it by somehow moving the price up by a lot then we are good, but if we stay the course it will happen, we might go up temporarily but we'll be inevitably going back down. The strategy here? Use this opportunity to catch alts at even lower prices, maybe as they double bottom .

The push up in price is due to money suddenly coming in(15billion came in and went out in a few hours), why is it coming in? To avoid the almost inevitable death cross here in the total market cap chart. Take a look at it and keep an eye on it.

The Genious of Support & Resistance
The chart above is a clear example of why support and resistance is the only technical Analysis strategy worth learning. The trendlines are now validated by the most important moving averages (the 50MA and the 200MA) I drew these trendlines a couple of months ago and here we are still using them. Elliott Wave Theory is a cruel joke, candlestick patterns are sometimes useful but not reliable, learn support and resistance and you'll make money, learn to have patience and you'll be rich, follow me and you'll learn how to combine both of these things.

Wisdom
In investment banking, there is a secret called the "90/90/90 Rule" which means that 90% of investors will lose 90% of their money in just 90 days. Just remember that large institutions are after your money, so don't make greedy unplanned moves, they are counting on you doing just that.

NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trendlines are green
Resistance trendlines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white

THE TREND: Still going down but near the bottom
THE OUTLOOK: Almost safe to buy BTC but let's wait just a little more.
BE SAFE AND FOLLOW ME TO BECOME PROFITABLE AND STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE.
If you keep trying and you fail, what do you eventually do? You give up! BTC will do that very soon.
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This is a link to my live chart if you guys want to copy my setup or just follow along.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0FJOpaqx/
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So what just happened is a perfect example of why small trades are not worth the risk. I saw most analysts were recommending to buy ETH and other alts for a small profit. Well... here we are, ETH came back down and more than likely those that bought based on a short trade are stuck or got stumped out by their SL. The best thing to do is buy very low (which means patiently waiting for months) buy when close to the 200MA on the weekly or 3D timeframe wait for stabilization, when it goes up then set your SL a little above where you bought. If the trades goes against you, you lose nothing. Right now it is time to buy Alts for the long term, buying to make a little profit will eat your money one small trade at a time.
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Nice work as always, cryptoGats. You're doing a phenomenal job of keeping tabs on the situation. We could naturally just be retesting support and who knows if some obtuse whale might want to step in here and pamp it, but there's no avoiding the fact that being under both of those MA:s leaves us in bearish territory at price time. I'm thoroughly in the 100k camp, though, so my timeframes are months and years, which makes me kind of a permabull, but I agree with your assesment that it's anybodys guess right now. There seems to be a lot of calls for more down, so it might just be we're going up, no? :D
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cryptoGats Steve_Wellingsworth
@Steve_Wellingsworth, Thanks Steve, we will retest support for sure but it is worth noting why $8300 is so important. For now $8300 is exactly 61.8% retrace of the recent push-up. If we go lower to 78.6 we may start to see buyers jump off and that's the scenario that will lead to a retest of the support at $7700. However, support may not hold after having so many candles pile up on top of it. Let's stay on top of it over the weekend.
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I like your long term analysis to see the big picture, thanks!
A little question, what is the name of that volume indicator that you have in your chart?
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@sfigus, Thank you.
It's called Cryptocap: Total
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sfigus cryptoGats
@cryptoGats, You're welcome! Could you give me the link to it? I couldnt find it on the standard search...
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@sfigus, Not sure if we can post links. Type this in the search bar: Charting and technical analysis by fred mcallen
it's the first item that comes up.
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sfigus cryptoGats
@cryptoGats, Is that a TA book that you base your analysis on?
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