Double Fibo retracements - possible 3'900 $ ?
This is the first idea I post about trend analysis. I learn by my own, thanks to TradingView community and other tools I got from the web - so do not take this as an advice for trade, but for only what it is : an idea from a beginner. I will explain what I see, and make personal comments from my current understanding - some kind of percussive elements that I I find noticeable, that I want to keep in mind, etc.
Hope this will be interesting... and feel really free to comment and help in any way - advices, correction of any nature, web ressources.... Let's bullish together :)
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Models used : Trend Lines , Support and Resistance , Fibonacci retracement .
Channel A (orange) is valid since 7th August. Corresponding Fibonacci retracement is drawn on the left. Interesting to see how 1.618 and 2.618 were strong support. S/R for channel B are not plotted (but for Higher High and Lower Lows), I keep only these two Fib levels that describe well major S/R levels of channel A.
Channel B (blue) is the current bearish movement that began on 2nd September. Corresponding Fib retracement level is plotted on right. I notice two things :
1. Fib level 1.618 was quite good retracement as a support ;
2. Fib 2.618 of channel B is aligned with with Fib 1.618 of channel A at 3880 $.
From here I make two scenario :
1 - Channel B Valid
1. As long as the BTC curve does not cross the top trend of B (top blue line), with at least one fully closed candle, channel B is valid.
2. In this case, target is 3880 $ : Fibo's alignement of the two strong, active, and competing channels.
3. If BTC drops below channel A down trend curve (bottom orange line), channel A is over. We may then follow only Fib B retacement, so next target : 3.618 or 3477 $, taking into account a resistance at 3594 $ from channel A to pass through first.
2 - Channel B broken
1. Due to the current high dynamics, I currently consider channel B broken at 4700 $ (Channel B higher high). More data will be needed to define targets then - currently Channel A higher High is defined as the top target.
And the current situation :
1. Channel B High (4443 $) and Low (4090 $) triggers are important points to follow and see if channel B tends to maintain (scenario 1) or break (scenario 2).
Hope this will be interesting... and feel really free to comment and help in any way - advices, correction of any nature, web ressources.... Let's bullish together :)
__________________________
Models used : Trend Lines , Support and Resistance , Fibonacci retracement .
Channel A (orange) is valid since 7th August. Corresponding Fibonacci retracement is drawn on the left. Interesting to see how 1.618 and 2.618 were strong support. S/R for channel B are not plotted (but for Higher High and Lower Lows), I keep only these two Fib levels that describe well major S/R levels of channel A.
Channel B (blue) is the current bearish movement that began on 2nd September. Corresponding Fib retracement level is plotted on right. I notice two things :
1. Fib level 1.618 was quite good retracement as a support ;
2. Fib 2.618 of channel B is aligned with with Fib 1.618 of channel A at 3880 $.
From here I make two scenario :
1 - Channel B Valid
1. As long as the BTC curve does not cross the top trend of B (top blue line), with at least one fully closed candle, channel B is valid.
2. In this case, target is 3880 $ : Fibo's alignement of the two strong, active, and competing channels.
3. If BTC drops below channel A down trend curve (bottom orange line), channel A is over. We may then follow only Fib B retacement, so next target : 3.618 or 3477 $, taking into account a resistance at 3594 $ from channel A to pass through first.
2 - Channel B broken
1. Due to the current high dynamics, I currently consider channel B broken at 4700 $ (Channel B higher high). More data will be needed to define targets then - currently Channel A higher High is defined as the top target.
And the current situation :
1. Channel B High (4443 $) and Low (4090 $) triggers are important points to follow and see if channel B tends to maintain (scenario 1) or break (scenario 2).
Comment:
pattern still valid - target almost tested 8-10 hours ago
Comment:
end of pattern