BTC potentional OBV breakout - update 2
BTC making a slow push out of distribution channel. Related idea linked below
Possible shift from distribution to accumulation underway and reversal of trend
see in my previous post how last time this OBV distribution trend broke, we gained 25% in a week and 50% in the month
(This current trend began on September 6, peak prior to price plunge)
Don't expect the same degree increase straight away here, but its a positive sign if it holds
(Apologies for multiple posts, don't have reputation points to include new chart as update to old)
Possible shift from distribution to accumulation underway and reversal of trend
see in my previous post how last time this OBV distribution trend broke, we gained 25% in a week and 50% in the month
(This current trend began on September 6, peak prior to price plunge)
Don't expect the same degree increase straight away here, but its a positive sign if it holds
(Apologies for multiple posts, don't have reputation points to include new chart as update to old)
Comment:
Macro, looking at daily chart it would be good if the day closes above the daily open, at 42810. Otherwise daily trend to me looks red
Comment:
This OBV breakout trend line is still holding, if it fails I will be looking for a 6% drop to around 39500 and an attempt to double bottom (which will likely be around the red obv trend line), then back up to test 45k, which I see as quite likely give the strong accumulation. If this fails and panic sets in it is possible we see another deeper drop like Sep 7, to the bottom of the OBV trend channel, this might be around 18-20% again to 35k before a pull back. There are a lot of order blocks between here and that figure so I hope its not the case. But planning for either scenario
Comment:
With this 4hr candle close (assuming it closes red) we will be kissing the obv breakout trend line, and the price trend - this is where I would expect a bounce.
Will have to finish the next 4hr block in green or the obv trend line is invalidated, failing a strong retest to continue trading above the volume of the break in the trend
Will have to finish the next 4hr block in green or the obv trend line is invalidated, failing a strong retest to continue trading above the volume of the break in the trend
Comment:
Strong bounce confirmed on the 4hr, OBV found support on trend line and now trading outside the distribution channel, unless we get a strong sell off. Price still trading within price trend triangle which will take some effort to break, but the accumulation makes me feel positive we go up from here at this point - within the next 24hrs, some consolidation likely before further movement. Looking at 45k, consolidation then up to 47.5k. Still concerned about daily trend, but intra-day looking good
