BTC at a Do-or-Die junction

What I understand from this chart is:
1. $BTC must go above 42.5k in the coming week or two to confirm downtrend reversal, else we may revisit 31k within August, via 37.3k test.
3. If 31k breaks, the bear trend continues.

P.S. I'm still learning charting. Just practicing Fibs. Really happy to apply something I've learnt.
Constructive comments appreciated.
Anything said is not financial advice. Always Learn and DYOR.

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