Bitcoin : 2 scenarios, Similar Perspective
It's been a long time since my latest update about bitcoin as the mother of all cryptocurrency. We know that the movement of the bitcoin's price will highly affected the movement of most of altcoins whatsoever. With current price movement of the bitcoin, We never know whether it's already at the top or the price will shows us another surprise in the future. However, I'm a type of trader which will be very reactive of each price action that occurs in the market. With current price action, it's very difficult to argue the the bull run is over. The 2 scenarios below are my bias right now, both of them are bullish in the long run but with different way to achieve it.
- Scenario 1
This scenario is the representation of the left chart which we can see that I assume that the correction phase hasn't ended yet. With this assumption, I don't care about the latest price action in the chart lately and I consider proportional value of the wave 4 in grand cycle. As we know, I can't even find the ABC structure in the lower time frame to represent this potential wave 4 as the corrective wave. That's why I see that the latest bounce since the $43000ish is only an action to complete B wave in lower degree. With this kind of price action, I'll expect more correction moves toward the downside to at least .382 Fibonacci retracement level. We can see further drop toward the golden pocket region in the future but as long as it doesn't closes below the $12400 region, the upside move toward $88000 is still valid.
- Scenario 2
This scenario is more bullish one which I see that the 4th wave structure isn't proportional if we compare with the overall chart shape but still I have to anticipate this movement that during the FOMO happen, there is likely the chart will shows us some anomaly like this structure. I assume the price has reached its bottom at the $43000 as the liquidation zone and the .236 Fibonacci as the strong support zone. After a phenomenal bounce there is a possibility of the price to continue its upward movement toward the $76900ish. However, I have to anticipate the less aggressive approach as if the bottom of the wave 4 is at the .236 Fibonacci retracement, there is likely a lack of momentum in the future.
In conclusion, both of my scenarios are showing an optimism in the market but still there is another external factor that will affect the price behavior in the future. I personally prefer the scenario 1 to take place as it will be more ideal for current market structure. This B wave can be a truncated wave which will breaks out the interim swing high of wave 3 just to liquidate some of early sellers. Still wait for the future's price action as we are having lack of confirmation and validation at this condition.
- Scenario 1
This scenario is the representation of the left chart which we can see that I assume that the correction phase hasn't ended yet. With this assumption, I don't care about the latest price action in the chart lately and I consider proportional value of the wave 4 in grand cycle. As we know, I can't even find the ABC structure in the lower time frame to represent this potential wave 4 as the corrective wave. That's why I see that the latest bounce since the $43000ish is only an action to complete B wave in lower degree. With this kind of price action, I'll expect more correction moves toward the downside to at least .382 Fibonacci retracement level. We can see further drop toward the golden pocket region in the future but as long as it doesn't closes below the $12400 region, the upside move toward $88000 is still valid.
- Scenario 2
This scenario is more bullish one which I see that the 4th wave structure isn't proportional if we compare with the overall chart shape but still I have to anticipate this movement that during the FOMO happen, there is likely the chart will shows us some anomaly like this structure. I assume the price has reached its bottom at the $43000 as the liquidation zone and the .236 Fibonacci as the strong support zone. After a phenomenal bounce there is a possibility of the price to continue its upward movement toward the $76900ish. However, I have to anticipate the less aggressive approach as if the bottom of the wave 4 is at the .236 Fibonacci retracement, there is likely a lack of momentum in the future.
In conclusion, both of my scenarios are showing an optimism in the market but still there is another external factor that will affect the price behavior in the future. I personally prefer the scenario 1 to take place as it will be more ideal for current market structure. This B wave can be a truncated wave which will breaks out the interim swing high of wave 3 just to liquidate some of early sellers. Still wait for the future's price action as we are having lack of confirmation and validation at this condition.
