Still want to be bullish on BTC? Flip the chart! for BINANCEUS:BTCUSDT by spatss

Perhaps my bias is showing: I've become very bearish on BTC and what I see as an incredibly overvalued crypto market in general.

Analysts seemed to update their predictions upward in Feb/Mar when we saw an incredible run for BTC and alts, but I rarely saw anyone consider the possibility that the existing models were being front-run... combined with retail FOMO and mirages of an impending collapse of traditional stores of value... to inflate a hopium balloon that's been torn open and has the potential to go down HARD.

Am I saying that this is for sure going to collapse? No. No one knows for sure what's going to happen. But I do think that it's worth looking at the worst-case scenarios when assessing personal financial risk. I've noticed there's a strong bias to be bullish on crypto. I think that some of it's justified, since it's a new and burgeoning technology and industry with loads of potential, but I have serious questions about the real expected returns and value of the majority of the coins and tokens on the market.

Isn't the whole point of most of this stuff to make things frictionless, easier, cheaper, more accessible? If so, then the fees should be low. And if the fees are low, the ROI for a Proof-of-stake coin should trend toward market balance: the fees should provide a ROI to holders/miners etc that's just high enough to encourage holding and eliminate bad actors,but not much more gain than that - because if these coins and networks are going to actually gain widespread adoption, it'll be the one(s) with low fees, high transaction speed, and good security. BTC has great security, but at this moment, is frankly terrible at the other two things.

So why do people still think that the returns on holding these things are going to make them wealthy beyond their wildest dreams? Well, I know it's a contentious thing to say, but I think people are starting to get the sense that there's a sort of pyramid scheme/multi-level marketing/ponzi type dynamic at play, where early adopters need to draw in more people to this sphere with the promise of huge gains in order to maintain growth, rather than having growth occur through actual use cases of the tech. I'm no exception: this just seemed like a no-brainer, impossible-to-lose type of investment!

It's bananas.

Let's see how one Bitcoin guru, WIlly Woo, has been seeing the rise and fall of BTC through the past few months. Take a trip back through his Twitter with me, will you?

April 20: "we're very close to the bottom, if it hasn't already been put in."

March 31: "$46.4k is the price I'm modelling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close)."

March 23: "Anyone selling right now is cray cray. Seriously strong long term holders are buying this dip."

March 21: "I'd say there's a fair chance we'll never see Bitcoin below $1T again"

March 13: "This is insanely bullish of course"

March 13: "Solid validation of $60k Bitcoin already"

March 5: "~$40k is the floor price which would be a gift to buyers"

Feb 18: "Under capital flow models, it would take a black swan to break $36k on a daily close. Never going to see 20k again, lol"

Happy to have productive discussion on any of this - but angry BTC maxis will be ignored :)
Not financial advice, happy trading!

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