butch_100

BTSUSDT, current downtrend form 18th december

BITTREX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether
106 2 2
Hope the chart will be ok for reading... Please feel free to comment and help me better understand :)
And this is an idea, not an advice !
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BTCUSDT             Bittrex, Daily candle

Data to look at: pink lines + yellow line + Fib retracement from June 2017 + indicators.

BTC             is falling since it's ATH             from 18th december (19'900 $), following first a possible symmetrical triangle initiated in 22th december.
But looks like today's news from China have broken the resistance line of this triangle.

Actually :
- SMMA 7 is crossing down SMMA 20 ; both are still far from SMMA 70, that would then be a test zone to follow for possible trend reversal, if reached ; both indicates bearish still active ;
- MACD is still in downtrend, with still power to loose ;
- Stochastic may show a possible trend reversal, but this indicator is quiet sensistive I think, so it can easily moves ;
- ADX indicates continuation of current bearish movement ;
- RSI is low, and can still decrease before entering oversold zone ;
- Volumes OBV have been kept constant since the beginning of the triangle initiation.

I think bears are still active, targeting the following resistances :
1. 10'800 $ as begining of the broken triangle from 12th ;
2. SMMA70, to follow : around 10'800 $ now, slight increase still possible ;
3. Resistance of uptrend channel from 15th september (yellow line) ;
5. 7'700 - 8'400 $ as a fight zone around Fib 1.618 + local previous local high/low + resistance of uptrend channel since 15th september (currently around 5'000 $, follow the line for update).
Lower values would broke this 15th sep channel, next one would be :
6. Around 5'000 $, resistance of ascending channel from june 17.

A pattern like three black crows in candles (saying we are in first), resulting from today's news on regulation (see China and Germany) could bring us to target 3 - channel 15th september, yellow line to follow.

What do you think ?
Comment: 1. Target 1 reached
2. Target 2 reached (error in the previous text, SMMA 70 was 10'000 at the time of writing, not 10'800 $)
Comment: Target 3 and 5 (missing 4 in my idea... :) ) reached
Nice work, thanks for your insight.

Target 3 seems almost inevitable at this point, around 8'500, before hopefully going back to an upward trend and less volatility.

Target 6 around 5'000, things would get pretty ugly and probably very chaotic with fighting between BTC and BCH, or even ETH which has proven itself able to pull off very strong "suck the air out of the room" rallies... Could literrally go anywhere from such a place.

Hodl (and diversify) and see :)
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butch_100 SColligo
@SColligo, Thanks for your comment, and I agree with yours ! yes, 8'5000 seels a turning point, hope it will resist. As you said, hodl diverfied and let see where we land !
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