Really good reason to be cautious about BTC "mooning"...
Every single trader that has traded for any length of time KNOWS about retracement. There are retracements to the upside, and retracements to the downside. And if you've dealt any serious amounts of time with retracements, you've dealt with Fibonacci retracements.
What's the general retracament value we're all accustomed to? Yup... The 0.618 retracement. Sometimes it's even deeper than that, but we all know that almost all retracements like to hit close to or even below the 0.618 fib.
With that said, let's take a look at the big picture here because I see so many people only look at this stupid flag pattern we're in for all the answers.
Hmmmm... Interesting. What's that you say?
Well, from the low of 3100 to the high of 14k we have only seemed to have retraced to the 0.382 fib so far and barely brushed the 0.5 retracement from the low to the high. So then ask yourself this. IF you were looking at a 4hr or a daily chart at the local level, would you REALLY buy here?
And let's be honest here, any trader that has spent any time wanting to catch a good price to buy immediately after a long run up will wait for at least the 0.618 fib to determine if this would be a good place to even think about dipping your toes into the "buy this dip" category.
YES... This does mean that we will jump around in price. YES we can still go up somewhat in price. But buying here is basically trying to catch a falling knife folks. Look at the moving averages on the weekly!!! You're kidding yourself if you honestly think we're anywhere near launching towards a "moon" phase.
The 0.618 is right at $7300!!!
WE HAVE ***NOT*** FULLY RETRACED FROM 14K. Period. Hell, the retracement from 20k was even BELOW the 0.786 fib! And seeing that there is no real strong resistance at 7300, I'm going to say that the next best hope is 6k for real resistance.
Those that are calling moon shots here buy in at the .382 fib after a high, see a bounce and go long, only to sell at the 0.5 fib and watch the price rebound at the 0.618. Ever REALLY think about this?
What's the general retracament value we're all accustomed to? Yup... The 0.618 retracement. Sometimes it's even deeper than that, but we all know that almost all retracements like to hit close to or even below the 0.618 fib.
With that said, let's take a look at the big picture here because I see so many people only look at this stupid flag pattern we're in for all the answers.
Hmmmm... Interesting. What's that you say?
Well, from the low of 3100 to the high of 14k we have only seemed to have retraced to the 0.382 fib so far and barely brushed the 0.5 retracement from the low to the high. So then ask yourself this. IF you were looking at a 4hr or a daily chart at the local level, would you REALLY buy here?
And let's be honest here, any trader that has spent any time wanting to catch a good price to buy immediately after a long run up will wait for at least the 0.618 fib to determine if this would be a good place to even think about dipping your toes into the "buy this dip" category.
YES... This does mean that we will jump around in price. YES we can still go up somewhat in price. But buying here is basically trying to catch a falling knife folks. Look at the moving averages on the weekly!!! You're kidding yourself if you honestly think we're anywhere near launching towards a "moon" phase.
The 0.618 is right at $7300!!!
WE HAVE ***NOT*** FULLY RETRACED FROM 14K. Period. Hell, the retracement from 20k was even BELOW the 0.786 fib! And seeing that there is no real strong resistance at 7300, I'm going to say that the next best hope is 6k for real resistance.
Those that are calling moon shots here buy in at the .382 fib after a high, see a bounce and go long, only to sell at the 0.5 fib and watch the price rebound at the 0.618. Ever REALLY think about this?