Will BTC be bulish for 1st week of October

The S&P 500 (US500) has fallen for six straight days. On 27 September, the index momentarily slipped below its June low, indicating that traders continue to sell in expectation of a recession caused by aggressive rate rises by the US Federal Reserve and uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Although bitcoin (BTC) is yet to retest its June low, the bulls have failed to maintain the price above $20,000. The bears are trying to strengthen their position by keeping BTC below $19,000 as of 28 September 2022.

Even if bitcoin closes September in the red, October’s strong past performances could cheer up the bulls. Since 2013, October has seen BTC close the month in the red only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018, coinglass data shows. This increases the possibility of a recovery in October.

However, institutional investors do not seem to be betting on a recovery anytime soon. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is believed to be preferred by institutional investors because of its ease of operation via a brokerage account, is trading at a steep discount of more than 35% to its net asset value, ycharts data shows.

The market intelligence firm Glassnode, having analysed various onchain metrics, said in its The Week Onchain newsletter on 26 September that Bitcoin HODLers have not panicked in the current bear market and most of the coin movement has been done by short-term holders.

The report said: “The HODLer class remain resolute with both mature coin USD wealth reaching ATHs, and a multitude of lifespan metrics fully resetting to historical lows, emphasizing the unwillingness to spend held coins. This suggests the majority of current market churn is associated with the Short-Term Holder class.”

Could bitcoin continue its outperformance or will the June support level crack? Could bitcoin go up in October? Read the BTC price analysis to find out.

BTC’s price has been trading near the June low of $17,550 since last week. The bulls attempted to start a recovery this week but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears continue to sell on rallies.

The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near the oversold territory suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price breaks below the support at $17,550, the BTC/USD pair could resume its downtrend. The next stop on the downside could be $15,000.

To invalidate this bearish view, the bulls will have to quickly push the price above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA). If they manage to do that, the pair could pick up momentum and start a rally to the 50-week simple moving average (SMA).

Bitcoin’s price rose above the 20-day EMA on 27 September but the bears sold near the 50-day SMA. This pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA by close.

If bears sink the price below the immediate support at $18,158, the June low of $17,550 could be tested. This is an important level to keep an eye on because the bulls are expected to defend the level aggressively.

A strong rebound off $17,550 will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the moving averages and challenge the resistance at $22,731. A break above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $25,170.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the vital support of $17,550, it will suggest that bears have asserted their dominance. The pair could then drop to $15,000.

Bitcoin: Buy or sell this week?

Bitcoin turned down from the moving averages on 27 September and the bears are attempting to pull the price below the immediate support of $18,158. If they succeed, Bitcoin’s price analysis suggests a drop to the June low of $17,550. A break below this support could intensify selling. The bulls will have to push the price above the 50-day SMA to gain the upper hand.


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