Both time frames are bullish in all terms, BUT there are negative haDelta divergences on both time frames too!
This Bull market can run further IF:
- Weekly chart closes higher above 160,55, which implies a sub 0,40 % yield on 10y German cash Bond
- Draghi loads more QE immediately
- Global risk off goes even more wild and people use Bund as a safe haven asset to buy... actually I don't know how much an already over-leveraged 10y Bond of Germany can be a safe haven, where the country's biggest bank (Deutschebank) is running a derivatives book of well above 54 TRILLION EUR, compared to Germany's GDP of ard 2,8-3 Trillion Euro and to the whole Eurozone's GDP of 9,5 Trillion Euro.
Also the Germans are making it clear by now they hate Draghi for robbing out their savers and pensioners through artificially low (negative) rates and distorted bond prices, just to back Italy, Spain, Greece, etc. Well, it is hard to digest when you have to "pay back" :-)
So for me Bund is not a safe haven. For me it is a risky asset, especially since April/2015 price action. It is a ticking time bomb, but of course this doesn't mean you have to bet against it until it delivers bearish signal.
Supports are:
- weekly: 157,75
- daily: 158,70 / 157,75
I will switch to 4H before ECB to check where could be a possible swing short entry level in case ECB disappoints.
This Bull market can run further IF:
- Weekly chart closes higher above 160,55, which implies a sub 0,40 % yield on 10y German cash Bond
- Draghi loads more QE immediately
- Global risk off goes even more wild and people use Bund as a safe haven asset to buy... actually I don't know how much an already over-leveraged 10y Bond of Germany can be a safe haven, where the country's biggest bank (Deutschebank) is running a derivatives book of well above 54 TRILLION EUR, compared to Germany's GDP of ard 2,8-3 Trillion Euro and to the whole Eurozone's GDP of 9,5 Trillion Euro.
Also the Germans are making it clear by now they hate Draghi for robbing out their savers and pensioners through artificially low (negative) rates and distorted bond prices, just to back Italy, Spain, Greece, etc. Well, it is hard to digest when you have to "pay back" :-)
So for me Bund is not a safe haven. For me it is a risky asset, especially since April/2015 price action. It is a ticking time bomb, but of course this doesn't mean you have to bet against it until it delivers bearish signal.
Supports are:
- weekly: 157,75
- daily: 158,70 / 157,75
I will switch to 4H before ECB to check where could be a possible swing short entry level in case ECB disappoints.
