Bund - Bears, Relax! Pull back to 152?

FX:BUND   Euro-Bund
86 7 5
What a collapse! Of course I closed my previous short too early, but never mind, on such a volatile mkt like Bund             is recently, it is hard to call bottoms and these kind of profits in 2-3 days are still quite good.

Watch out now! Bund             reached important resistance on weekly. We will likle ysee some pull back up to bearish supports. I opened some counter trend long

- Extreme selloff pushed Ichimoku setup to neutral from bullish . We have a weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. Neutral setup will remain for a while, as Price will likely stay and do more choppy trading in the thick kumo ahead.
- Price is also below 100 WMA! Heikin Ashi signal is bearish , but haDelta once more reached and extreme low. I doubt we can see such a long body bearish candle soon again. More likely we'll see some pull back, similar to the one that happened three weeks ago.

- Some says "Never catch a falling knife". I agree, unless you see some signals that the knife might not fall further. Even then be cautious, trade only 1/3 or max 1/2 trade unit size, because you trade against the major trend, and also due to extremely increased volatility .
- Ichimoku setup is heavy bearish , with trend supports at 152 (Kijun) / 153 ( Trendline ) / 154 (Kumo). Price has built a steep bearish trend channel, and seem it has reached a possible interim bottom within this channel.
- Heikin Ashi signals decreasing bearish momentum. Inside body candle with no lower low, and as I write this post now with even a higher wick! haDelta/SMA3 slowly ticking higher with positive divergence.

Retracement to 152 +/- is possible. There probably we'll have to look for new sell signals again.

I opened 0,5 trade unit long at 149,35 today. Maybe I will add 0,5 more if I see confirming Heikin Ashi candle signal.
Once again, be wise with position sizing and with stop when you trade this beast, espec. if you trade long!

On my 1h chart the bund failed to confirm the break at 150.67 (fibonacci)

As up to now, it looks like it was an elliot correction wave (ABC)

And it's not correlating the fall of EUR/USD today.

Since yesterday I made really big profits, I prefered to take my profits and close my short position. I'll wait for a clear a signal to enter again.

Kumowizard moashiman
If you refresh and check my Heikin Ashi chart today, you can compare the px action with the one we've seen from 15/May. I think we may see something similar, ticking higher in next few days, with high intraday volatility.
However I agree with you in one very important thing, and that is not Bund related, but related to trading style and strategy: if you have a well implemented, working strategy which is suitable for your personal style, then you must always follow your rules and stick to your system. If your system tells you to take profit, then do it. If your system uses trailing stop, then follow that. But never ever question your own system!

This is something most people either do not understand, or they by some psychological reason can not live and work with. They do not understand that trading has to be very bouring, and sometimes you have to let your whole unrealised profit melt down to zero or to some loss, to be able to get a nice trend with excellent profit once. Most of People want to fight the mkts and find something new excitement every singe day. Btw that is one reason I do not really trade any lower time frames. I use only weekly and daily, and for better timing I sometimes check 4H.
moashiman Kumowizard
Thanks for sharing your view. Yes, indeed, I totally agree with you. I don't trade in futures like yourself. I trade with turbos with a high leverage which is very famous here in Belgium for retail traders. And since it has a knock out level, I have to adapt the way I trade or I could lose my entire profit and capital invested if I don't put tight stops.

Anyway, I would like to have your point of view regarding Greece. How do you expect the bund reacting on a short time frame if there is a deal or no deal regarding Greece? How do you take this into account in your trading strategy these days?
Thanks for your analysis. I also entered a long position today cause I've noticed a breakout of the downtrend on the 1h chart.
152 looks like a nice target to take some profits indeed.
Kumowizard moashiman
You are welcome. If you like it, spread it to others :-). Also don't forget to follow me on Twitter too. Sometimes I post few charts and ideas there earlier.
Indeed, 152 is possible, and as quick as it moves, it can happen within few days.
moashiman Kumowizard
You've got yourself a new follower mate. Sure, I will :) thanks!
Kumowizard moashiman
Thank you very much!
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