Watch out now! Bund reached important resistance on weekly. We will likle ysee some pull back up to supports. I opened some counter trend long
- Extreme selloff pushed setup to neutral from . We have a weak Tenkan/Kijun cross. Neutral setup will remain for a while, as Price will likely stay and do more choppy trading in the thick kumo ahead.
- Price is also below 100 WMA! Heikin Ashi signal is , but haDelta once more reached and extreme low. I doubt we can see such a long body candle soon again. More likely we'll see some pull back, similar to the one that happened three weeks ago.
- Some says "Never catch a falling knife". I agree, unless you see some signals that the knife might not fall further. Even then be cautious, trade only 1/3 or max 1/2 trade unit size, because you trade against the major trend, and also due to extremely increased .
- setup is heavy , with trend supports at 152 (Kijun) / 153 ( ) / 154 (Kumo). Price has built a steep channel, and seem it has reached a possible interim bottom within this channel.
- Heikin Ashi signals decreasing momentum. Inside body candle with no lower low, and as I write this post now with even a higher wick! haDelta/SMA3 slowly ticking higher with positive divergence.
Retracement to 152 +/- is possible. There probably we'll have to look for new sell signals again.
I opened 0,5 trade unit long at 149,35 today. Maybe I will add 0,5 more if I see confirming Heikin Ashi candle signal.
Once again, be wise with position sizing and with stop when you trade this beast, espec. if you trade long!
As up to now, it looks like it was an elliot correction wave (ABC)
And it's not correlating the fall of EUR/USD today.
Since yesterday I made really big profits, I prefered to take my profits and close my short position. I'll wait for a clear a signal to enter again.
However I agree with you in one very important thing, and that is not Bund related, but related to trading style and strategy: if you have a well implemented, working strategy which is suitable for your personal style, then you must always follow your rules and stick to your system. If your system tells you to take profit, then do it. If your system uses trailing stop, then follow that. But never ever question your own system!
This is something most people either do not understand, or they by some psychological reason can not live and work with. They do not understand that trading has to be very bouring, and sometimes you have to let your whole unrealised profit melt down to zero or to some loss, to be able to get a nice trend with excellent profit once. Most of People want to fight the mkts and find something new excitement every singe day. Btw that is one reason I do not really trade any lower time frames. I use only weekly and daily, and for better timing I sometimes check 4H.
Anyway, I would like to have your point of view regarding Greece. How do you expect the bund reacting on a short time frame if there is a deal or no deal regarding Greece? How do you take this into account in your trading strategy these days?