Yesterday the daily range was 32 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 52 pips. Price missed the daily range hence I expect a decent price expansion of above today's 20-day ADR of 48 pips or at least hitting the exact range projection.
I am bullish bias for CADCHF hence I am looking at the liquidity pool at 0.74800-0.74880 and/or 0.74700-0.74600. If price enters into this price zone, then it is a bullish activation for me and I would proceed to look for a bullish trigger to long this pair.
There is a CPI number for Canada today at 8.30 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I have looked at the last 3 data release of CPI. My concern of risk event is generally only the inevitable stop hunt that occurs during this time hence I only look at the reaction candle (the 30-minute candle at the time of the release of the economic number).
On June 19th, 2019, when the number came out better than expected with +0.3% deviation (0.4% vs 0.1%), there was a 25 pip bullish spike (30 min candle) followed by retracement taking out the 25-26 pips bullish spike and price movement was flat until NY close. The price moved up again and closed above the high of that 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into an intraday bearish move the following day. The underlying trend at that time was Bearish.
On July 17th, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.1% deviation (-0.2% vs -0.3%), there was a 17 pip run. That 30-min candle closed as a spinning top type candle and price moved down and closed below the close price of this 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into a bearish move the following day. The underlying technical narrative at that time was Bearish as there was a Double top at a significant level.
On August 21st, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.4% deviation (0.5% vs 0.1%), there was a 24 pip bullish spike. That candle closed as a solid bullish candle and price moved slightly flat after NY close. The price went moderately bullish the following day. The underlying technical trend at that time was Bearish (which the price went into a bearish intraday trend 2 days after the CPI numbers released)
Based on these small sample data (but rest assured I have checked larger sample size but for the sake of simplicity and avoiding this post to be a very dragging and long post, I just present the last 3 CPI numbers that came out), very often the candle spike reacts according to the headline numbers but the price action afterward were somewhat mixed and "random".
The candle spike did show there was a stop hunt i.e June 19th, after the bullish spike, the price went down at the next several candles and July 17th, there were two-sided spike even though it was only 17 pips but the candle closed as spinning top which suggested there was an "accumulation" in that 30 minute period.
I will trade around this risk event and looking for a stop-hunt at the levels I have determined as liquidity pool so I can Long CADCHF. The forecast is -0.2%, huge decrease from previous 0.5% (-0.7% deviation). If the actual number is somewhat better than -0.2% with huge deviation, then I expect a 20-25 pip bullish spike. I will enter the trade after the 8pm candle close (enter a trade at 9 pm Singapore time) BUT only if the price at the time was already tapped into the liquidity pool. IF not, then I will wait until the next day and see if the market can give me new and fresh structures to work on.
If the number came out worse than expected, then I expect 20-25 pips bearish spike. As I mentioned, the aftermath of this event seems to be random and that suggests me I can proceed to trade according to my technical bias. The reactionary bearish spike, at which I hope will be the catalyst of liquidity run towards the levels I have determined so I can look for bullish triggers to long CADCHF
I am bullish bias for CADCHF hence I am looking at the liquidity pool at 0.74800-0.74880 and/or 0.74700-0.74600. If price enters into this price zone, then it is a bullish activation for me and I would proceed to look for a bullish trigger to long this pair.
There is a CPI number for Canada today at 8.30 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I have looked at the last 3 data release of CPI. My concern of risk event is generally only the inevitable stop hunt that occurs during this time hence I only look at the reaction candle (the 30-minute candle at the time of the release of the economic number).
On June 19th, 2019, when the number came out better than expected with +0.3% deviation (0.4% vs 0.1%), there was a 25 pip bullish spike (30 min candle) followed by retracement taking out the 25-26 pips bullish spike and price movement was flat until NY close. The price moved up again and closed above the high of that 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into an intraday bearish move the following day. The underlying trend at that time was Bearish.
On July 17th, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.1% deviation (-0.2% vs -0.3%), there was a 17 pip run. That 30-min candle closed as a spinning top type candle and price moved down and closed below the close price of this 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into a bearish move the following day. The underlying technical narrative at that time was Bearish as there was a Double top at a significant level.
On August 21st, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.4% deviation (0.5% vs 0.1%), there was a 24 pip bullish spike. That candle closed as a solid bullish candle and price moved slightly flat after NY close. The price went moderately bullish the following day. The underlying technical trend at that time was Bearish (which the price went into a bearish intraday trend 2 days after the CPI numbers released)
Based on these small sample data (but rest assured I have checked larger sample size but for the sake of simplicity and avoiding this post to be a very dragging and long post, I just present the last 3 CPI numbers that came out), very often the candle spike reacts according to the headline numbers but the price action afterward were somewhat mixed and "random".
The candle spike did show there was a stop hunt i.e June 19th, after the bullish spike, the price went down at the next several candles and July 17th, there were two-sided spike even though it was only 17 pips but the candle closed as spinning top which suggested there was an "accumulation" in that 30 minute period.
I will trade around this risk event and looking for a stop-hunt at the levels I have determined as liquidity pool so I can Long CADCHF. The forecast is -0.2%, huge decrease from previous 0.5% (-0.7% deviation). If the actual number is somewhat better than -0.2% with huge deviation, then I expect a 20-25 pip bullish spike. I will enter the trade after the 8pm candle close (enter a trade at 9 pm Singapore time) BUT only if the price at the time was already tapped into the liquidity pool. IF not, then I will wait until the next day and see if the market can give me new and fresh structures to work on.
If the number came out worse than expected, then I expect 20-25 pips bearish spike. As I mentioned, the aftermath of this event seems to be random and that suggests me I can proceed to trade according to my technical bias. The reactionary bearish spike, at which I hope will be the catalyst of liquidity run towards the levels I have determined so I can look for bullish triggers to long CADCHF
