watch the upwards move of the CHADCHF pair.
why I like this trade:
CAD perspective:
- CAD employment report with a BLOWOUT number (again!) with +150k jobs created (most of them fulltime)!
- BOC on hold but another job report like this and they will feel pressure for more rate hikes
- inflation falling in canada but core remains sticky (so far)
- migration is booming creating growth for GDP and housing
- housing so far steady (but a clear risk for sure)
- oil with upwards potential
CHF perspective:
- Swiss inflation is falling (although the CPI number today will beat the market expectations of 2.9% YY)
- SNB will hike 1 or max 2 times this year and then close their hiking cycle as inflation will get back to their target in H2 2023
- SNB have become sligthly more tolerant for CHF depreciation as shown in their FX sales numbers
- Trendfollowing Algos are heavily short CADCHF, they need to be squezzed out like a lemon
why I like this trade:
CAD perspective:
- CAD employment report with a BLOWOUT number (again!) with +150k jobs created (most of them fulltime)!
- BOC on hold but another job report like this and they will feel pressure for more rate hikes
- inflation falling in canada but core remains sticky (so far)
- migration is booming creating growth for GDP and housing
- housing so far steady (but a clear risk for sure)
- oil with upwards potential
CHF perspective:
- Swiss inflation is falling (although the CPI number today will beat the market expectations of 2.9% YY)
- SNB will hike 1 or max 2 times this year and then close their hiking cycle as inflation will get back to their target in H2 2023
- SNB have become sligthly more tolerant for CHF depreciation as shown in their FX sales numbers
- Trendfollowing Algos are heavily short CADCHF, they need to be squezzed out like a lemon
Comment:
As forecasted the Swiss CPI numbers beat the market expectations with a 3.3% YY reading.