CADJPY Long Term Outlook & Levels

THE BIG PICTURE: Confluence appears at point C after using a couple of fib tools. The 61.8% level is revealed after measuring segment A to B with the fib retracement tool. Next take the fib extension tool to measure segment w to x and project from y to get the 1.61% extension level at point z. These two levels line up right around the 104 level, so any rally to that point will be met with resistance until that level is surpassed. More confirmation that the sellers are in charge will become apparent if this pair moves below 90 and holds.

THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: Bears have distinguished point C as a level to defend based on their ability to create a swing point and lower high at that level. The strategy from this point is to switch to the lower time frame and look for a rally to fail some where near that swing high. This will help limit risk. The reward for the trade targets point D around the 55 handle.