PriceActionTrading
Long

CADJPY BUY AT 96.00-97.00

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
434 47 15
TRYING MY HANDS ON MORE PAIRS NOW THAT THE MAJORS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BADLY FOR ME.
RECENTLY REJECTED FROM 100.00 ROUND NUMBER RESISTANCE.
THIS PAIR MAY SEE SOME CORRECTION TO 97.00 OR EVEN 96.00.
A TRADE WORTH LOOKING OUT FOR NEXT WEEK.
Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Hope you are right mate.
Reply
moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey price action, I think this is a possiblity since we got a daily break above and close above the 50% retracement level. Next target is the 61.8% level. Good luck :)
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey moneymaking, not really sure what level you are talking about. Could you post a chart?
Thanks for your comment though.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Oh ya sure, Sorry about that. Here it is:
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moneymaking moneymaking
2 years ago
snapshot
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
I see. very nice chart. So you have an overall bearish stance? and 100.00 was the 50%.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Ya, you see this is where I am having trouble. We got daily close above 50% level, we are near the 100 round number (but didn;t touched it yet) and we get doji and bearish pin bar. This is CRAZY !!
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Casey_Yeo moneymaking
2 years ago
CRAZY? Why?
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moneymaking Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
oh hey casey, it's crazy because I am unable to interpret all these different clues that the market has given us. Any type of help would be great.
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Hi moneymaking, actually IMO. Your fibo drawing is too overextended. It is drawn over a 5months period. I dont think it will be valid. If i were to use fibo, probably 1 - 2 months worth of data is the limit. 5 months fibo will not hold any significance IMO.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Ohh, I see. I didn't take that into account. That's definitely going into my rule book. Thank you price action :)
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
No its just my personal opinion. You do what you have to. Sometimes if the price moves in a near perfect wave like pattern. Fibo can be applied even if it is over a 5 months period. But for this CADJPY, there was a consolidation from FEB to end APR. I would void any Fibo.
IF there wasnt that consolidation and price moved up to the 50% without any hesitation then your FIBO would be a very valid one.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Alright, but still what you told me earlier about 5 month period, still seems important (to me at least). I didn;t knew that before :)
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Casey_Yeo moneymaking
2 years ago
Seriously, I wont be too concerned about the period of time used to draw Fib. It is also subjective as to which high point and low point used to draw the Fib. If you use the high point on 23 Dec to draw the Fib, instead of 8 Dec, you will see the two pins lining up at 61.8. This is no magic tool. Just something to add confluence.
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moneymaking Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Ya that's true, fibs are there just to give you extra bit of conformation.
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Yea there are many ways to draw a single fib. No matter how we draw it we will still differ from how those big money have drawn it. So i wont give fib much significance. Just an added confluence if it lies exactly and nicely at that 61.8.
+1 Reply
Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Big money may not even use fib. Most likely look at demand and supply area.
+2 Reply
PriceActionTrading Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Yes definitely true. but always nice to plot out a nice fib just in case.
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Casey_Yeo moneymaking
2 years ago
It depends on your own trading plan and rules. What are the criteria that must be in place before you pull the trigger? Are these criteria having same weightage of importance? If your rules state that price must close below Fib50 before you take short, then no short for you here.
Personally, my main criteria are trend, level, signal. Fib and trendline are my secondary tools. RSI divergence last. I won't be bothered too much about the price closing slightly above Fib50. For me, signals anywhere between 50 and 61.8 is ok.
Keep it simple. The more ingredients we have, the more confused and trigger-shy we become.
+2 Reply
moneymaking Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Awesome, totally agree with you casey. Thank you for the explanation :)
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
@Casey. that sounds like my trading plan too :)
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Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
I follow people who trade similarly as me. ;)
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moneymaking
2 years ago
It's kind of conflicting because we got a close above 50% level but at the same time we get a doji and possibly a bearish pin bar. This is confusing me :(
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moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey price action, what do you think about dollar bearish strength after the today's daily close below 100 MA.? Do you see this as a good bearish signal?
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Can you post a chart again. Sorry. I do not follow dollar index. Purely forex.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Sure, no problem. Here it is:
snapshot
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Hi, from what i can see from the chart. Price has breached previous swing point (green trendline). It looks like a retest now.
i wouldnt sell anytime soon as 97.00 is the optimal place to sell.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Ya, that's right. I am still waiting on the retest. Oh well, waiting is what I'll do :)
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
What I see here is that, Dollar gave us a daily break and close BELOW the 100 EMA and EURUSD also gave us a daily break and close ABOVE the 100 EMA. I don't see any reason not to buy EURUSD or any pair with USD being the quote currency (---USD).
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
I understand what you mean. You are using the dollar index as a confluence to buy the eurusd. If that is part of your trading plan which you have to follow and has followed to make consistent good trade. Then good ahead with it :). it sounds logical to me too. Except that we need to be exactly right on the usd sentiment, which is not an easy thing small traders like us could confirm.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Ya, I agree. It is difficult to get the usd sentiment right. But what is interesting about this is that, this is the first time we got a close below 100 EMA since 2014 August. This might have some importance to this idea.
+1 Reply
moneymaking moneymaking
2 years ago
This is the same with eurusd, it did not close above 100 EMA since May 2014. But we should not forget to take into account, that this might be a false break and close above. Trying to trap the buyers and then sell it back down.
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PriceActionTrading moneymaking
2 years ago
Yes you are right. It could be a trap. My sentiment on eurusd is still bearish but price is showing otherwise. Should not trade on what we think but what we see. So i am staying out of USD.
Anyways regarding your EMAs. i do not use 100 ema but if you backtested it and find it reliable you should be confident about it.
I can only say/comment for 20sma 50sma and 200sma which i use.
SMA not EMA. I dont know which is better or what, but ema alone cannot be your only underlying reason for trading a pair :)
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Ya, for sure. moving averages just show you the direction that the currency MIGHT be going in. Thank you price action for great responses. I am learning really good things from you, keep it up mate :)
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Just a follow up.
I could not get in initially at the top.
Since we already have confirmed bearish bias,
I found some confluence for me to enter the trade @ market.

50% fib at 50SMA 20SMA H4.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
That is also a support become resistance zone in H4.
There is also a small pin bar (previous candle) at that zone.
Tempted to add at break below the pin bar but realised it is against my rules.
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PriceActionTrading Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Haha. Yes exactly. I entered at that small pin bar. Well if it is against your rules then do not. Haha.
I noticed that pin bar but did not want to mention that pin bar due to controversy issue.
Pin bar IMO usually are defined to be more than 30 pips on H4 and above timeframe.
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PriceActionTrading PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
@moneymaking
This is an example of how i would draw a FIB.
1)a clean retracement to the 50%/61.8% level
2)not over more than 10~ bars.

But but it is really up to you.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Awesome price action, thank you for the great example. Appreciate it :)
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Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
I see. Unaware of such controversy.
So tempted that I mindlessly logged into trading platform and key in the orders. Then realised my trading objective.
Good luck mate.
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PriceActionTrading Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Yea you too. Just hope i wont get stopped out of a good trade again this time.
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Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
dont worry about losses. worry about not trading well.
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Casey_Yeo PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Also tempted to long SPX but then realised today is NFP.
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Just a follow up.

More confluence and reason for you to continue holding onto your SELL CADJPY until 96.00 - 97.00

snapshot
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PriceActionTrading PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Oh yes, forgotten to mention about the 20 50SMA H4. Cant exactly say it failed to close above it neither can i say it successfully closed above it.
It is just lying exactly at the 50SMA but i would the past 2 H4 bars was a futile attempt to close back above the 50SMA, thus bearish bias for me.
+1 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
2 years ago
Good luck Price action, I wanted to short at 99.12 but looks like I have missed the train :)
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If only i know a way to send notification to my followers informing them of trendlines broken, watch this or stuff. Instead of having to types comments or post an idea just for a comment. That would be great.
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