4xForecaster
Short

$CAD vs. $JPY - Expecting A Geo-Based Decline To 93.028 #forex

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
867 47 13
Geometry completes at 5-prime, making 94.00 a significant bullish entrenchment to consider first and foremost.

Level of Point-3 = 96.807 offers a probable short trigger value, corresponding to base of discreet nodular geometry.

On its own, Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on 90.005.

Background Elliott Wave appears to remain intact, as 4th wave terminates clear of Wave-1 territory.

Look for invalidation > Point-5'.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

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David Alcindor
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Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made in the discussion thread - I am merely moving them in this "Update Status" so as to keep it easily accessible and chronologically clear:

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21 APR 2015 - ADDENDUM:

Chart at time of release:

snapshot

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David Alcindor


28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY eyes 99.122 as probable structurally-defined level of reversal; Bearish:

snapshot


$CAD $JPY $USD #BOC #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor


29 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY stalls at 99.122 structure; Off-Set Rule defines more proximal support at 96.807:

snapshot


$CAD $JPY $USD #BOC #BOJ
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David Alcindor


12 MAY 2015

Now, watch out for this DAILY:

snapshot


Depending on the risk profile of your account, this makes for a great potential, as well.
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David Alcindor


03 AUG 2015:
Here is the DAILY chart - I have added bearish targets, in case it carves out lower-lows:

snapshot


@HamedAghajani, expect your 60-min. chart to complete a 5', allowing price to relax to the UP-side with limitation based on Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price remains under bearish control.
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David Alcindor


21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY hit 93.295 target as forecast; Intent on 92.293, eyes 90.005:

snapshot


$CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ #loonie #yen $USD #forex
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David Alcindor


23 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY hit all bear targets as forecast; Bulls readying in stand-by riposte:

snapshot


$CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ #loonie #yen
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David Alcindor


27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

@iefan - I have kept sight on this WEEKLY chart instead, wherein I have included your WW/Geo - Of note, I have entered a long position already, at the completion of the last bearish Qual-Target. This is a long play in the making, both in time horizon and frame.

snapshot


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David Alcindor


27 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

Note how the RSI has been associated with significant moves relative to the prior highs, in the Fibonacci order of at least 0.386 (subsequently arriving at Point-1), or even extensions of at least 1.414 (subsequently arriving at Point-3).

Further downside is always a possibility, so a tight SL is (always is) in order.
 
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

We're in this educational trade for the long haul ... I would use this as a whether-van. An interim decline remains a limited potential, whereas a long-term rally is still the forecast in force.

INVALIDATION of the Predictive/Forecasting Model should be set at BACA < 50% Line.

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: "Brain Chatter Rooms"

There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter" with myself. These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare educational trades in advance.

You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick: I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

If you think this could be beneficial to friends, peers, family, and perhaps perk up their interest in more advance technical analysis than the over-traded patterns, then feel free to share these links with them.

These are all free analyses, all resulting from years of defining a Predictive/Forecasting Model. I appreciate your intelligent comment, insightful posts and kind referrals.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rather rarely replying to inquiries within these chatroom - Best is to contact me through the threads, such as this one, where the discussion can reach a far greater number of traders and benefit not just the chatroom participants, but the larger community of traders here on TradingView and outside.

Also, these chatrooms are not spaces where I would engage traders into circular arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,


David Alcindor


PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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21 APR 2015 - ADDENDUM:

Chart at time of release:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
THANK you David
Reply
David, just so that I understand this clearly, for this case are you suggesting point 5' to be the SL instead of your usual Fib 1.131 conservative SL?
snapshot
+1 Reply
@emre - Great question.

I would personally stick to what it means in terms of pips potentially lost. In a daily chart, a SL at a 5-prime could be devastating. So, best i to relate to risk tolerance. Every trader has a different set of conditions (account size, leverage, risk tolerance).

I know one trader who only looks to lose 50 pips at a time, so that if the SL would require to be an equivalent of 55 pips away, the "deal" would be off, and that trader would look for another opp somewhere else, even IF the underlying pattern had a greater probability of going that trader's way.

So, there is no definite way to recommend one way or another. What I have strived to do is to provide ideas that would make sense when applying to one's own particular situation. Some traders might not want to expose more than the 1.313, 1.272 or 1.414.

I personally like to enter a counter-trend whenever price reaches the 1.414 of a move that corresponds to my Predictie/Forecasting Model level of reversal, as an added confirmation, with a SL set at 1.618 + spread value away.


David
+2 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks. I am still trying to figure this out for myself. I have been burned too many times due to tight SL where trade would go the way I predicted shortly after I get stopped. At the same time, I want to stick with my initial predictions for each trade and not move the TP and SL to make sure I do not mix emotions, and develop a more repeatable trading system. I think I will stick with the 1.131 for a while and compare the results to what I have done in the past.
+1 Reply
@emre - Sounds like you have a solid plan.

David
+1 Reply