Things Could Get Loonie...

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
255 13 3
This morning I shared an idea with a similar chart on Minyanville's "Buzz & Banter" and thought I'd share it with the good folks of TradingView as well.

CADJPY             displays a daunting Head & Shoulder's Top very similar to what we see in USDJPY             . The major pairs always have more trickery involved to some degree and Dollar Yen has been a nervous, noisy trade the last several days. In contrast, CADJPY             has been a cleaner tell as to what's really going on in global macro.

CAD is a commodity currency and therefore often reflects the sentiment of crude oil             and gold             , among others. Last week's COT report revealed record long positioning in front month Crude contracts. The crowd is usually wrong, unfortunately. Further, I was reminded the last few days that the S&P 500             "Is always long Crude." In other words, a breakdown in CADJPY             could foretell a breakdown in Crude and thereby a breakdown in US equity indices.

I'm not sure what came first; the chicken or the egg. Certainly there are many other factors at play in creating this very bearish H+S             formation other than my simpleton takeaway. However, given the CADJPY             correlation to other major currencies that effect US equity markets - I think a triggered formation here has grave implications for US equity bulls.

Keep an eye on the pair as a leading indicator for now. Anything can happen and the risk/reward isn't there to justify a short entry just yet (at least not a full position imo             ). Think of CADJPY             as a proxy for USDJPY             with cleaner price action in the current market environment (these things change over time).

Good luck out there, keep 'em tight!

Short initiated in the pair.
Here we go again...
Still stuck in purgatory. Next day or two should give clear guidance as to direction of the next major move.
DuncanParker DuncanParker
More bullish move today back above the neckline; if bulls can put in a higher high and hold a higher low, this pair may have escaped big bad Head & Shoulder's Top formation. Stay tuned!
Alright, well the breakdown area has been re-tested. Aggressive traders (long or short - as stated I believe the short side will play out - but that could be confirmation bias so trade your own plan) should look to build or add to positions here. Next week could be a doozy for the markets.
Great Work
DuncanParker StealthTrader
Thanks Stealth!
Another great idea. I wouldn't have seen this as a Head-and-shoulder, frankly.
DuncanParker motleifaul
Thanks! Yeah, they don't necessarily have to form horizontally. Most refer to this as a "Sidewinder Head & Shoulders" setup. Currently, price is over 80 pips lower than when I posted the above chart 13 hours ago. I'll be looking for acceleration to 92 then 91 for a bounce. Whether or not it wants to retest the breakdown point remains to be seen. There's nothing out there that says it "must" retest that area, just a common occurrence. Regardless, the pattern has been validated so we should expect the 83 measured move target to be achieved in due course.
DuncanParker DuncanParker
Here's an updated chart as of near 5 p.m. EST.
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out