DuncanParker
Short

Things Could Get Loonie...

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
255 13 3
This morning I shared an idea with a similar chart on Minyanville's "Buzz & Banter" and thought I'd share it with the good folks of TradingView as well.

CADJPY             displays a daunting Head & Shoulder's Top very similar to what we see in USDJPY             . The major pairs always have more trickery involved to some degree and Dollar Yen has been a nervous, noisy trade the last several days. In contrast, CADJPY             has been a cleaner tell as to what's really going on in global macro.

CAD is a commodity currency and therefore often reflects the sentiment of crude oil             and gold             , among others. Last week's COT report revealed record long positioning in front month Crude contracts. The crowd is usually wrong, unfortunately. Further, I was reminded the last few days that the S&P 500             "Is always long Crude." In other words, a breakdown in CADJPY             could foretell a breakdown in Crude and thereby a breakdown in US equity indices.

I'm not sure what came first; the chicken or the egg. Certainly there are many other factors at play in creating this very bearish H+S             formation other than my simpleton takeaway. However, given the CADJPY             correlation to other major currencies that effect US equity markets - I think a triggered formation here has grave implications for US equity bulls.

Keep an eye on the pair as a leading indicator for now. Anything can happen and the risk/reward isn't there to justify a short entry just yet (at least not a full position imo             ). Think of CADJPY             as a proxy for USDJPY             with cleaner price action in the current market environment (these things change over time).

Good luck out there, keep 'em tight!

DP
Wow, this trade is happening fast. It almost looks like price could slice through support like a hot knife - doubtful, but it's in free-fall at the moment. What happens when price finds would-be support, matters.
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Here we go... Break on through to the other side.
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...and we're through. Either gonna woosh 200 bips or claw back above. I expect continuation lower through the North America session.
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Great Work
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DuncanParker PRO StealthTrader
Thanks Stealth!
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Alright, well the breakdown area has been re-tested. Aggressive traders (long or short - as stated I believe the short side will play out - but that could be confirmation bias so trade your own plan) should look to build or add to positions here. Next week could be a doozy for the markets.
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Still stuck in purgatory. Next day or two should give clear guidance as to direction of the next major move.
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
More bullish move today back above the neckline; if bulls can put in a higher high and hold a higher low, this pair may have escaped big bad Head & Shoulder's Top formation. Stay tuned!
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Here we go again...
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Short initiated in the pair.
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