After break of key resistance at 111.00 I would not consider any fall-backs under that level as long as the Iraq crisis lasts. Additionally the upwards movement through some broken Eliott Waves (but not rule-broken) gives some idea of technical potential for the yellow neutral zone. More political pressure can bring the price into the green zone.
Two possible scenarios:
1. it will hold a neutral sideways market
2. it will break through 113/114 for more upwards movement