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My interest just got piqued with all the noise about weed stock online and I thought to look at it, and loe and behold, they are on parabolic advances. Canopy Growth alone has appreciated 2565% since July 2016 to it's last peak price 5 days ago. Right now the next target (50% of the advance is 70) before it dips a little and then heading for the real prize which is 140.

So if you can buy weed stock at any pullback or wait for the bigger pullback at 50% and double your money without leverage in a few months!!
Comment: For recent comparison of accurately calling a price on Parabolic Advance check my analysis on USDTRY, now it seems obvious but at the time of calling the 6.10 in May, I had guys saying it is impossible, the economy would crash, well it didn't but the price got to the target AHEAD of projected time. Buy weed stock.

I've been looking at this recent consolidation as a halfway pattern. Roughly from 26 to 54. So from this i see the next move to about 82. That would be for a linear chart. If we use a logarithmic chart, we essentially saw a double on the first move, one could argue for double on this next move which would give us about 108. Not sure which target to use. And these would be short term targets about the end of October similar in timeframe to first move. Thoughts?
Great analysis! I've seen peter brandt talk about fractals, so this is good to see. I've been in and out of $weed since 2016
wow very interesting TA. How do you find these levels? surely they're not arbitrary?
KeTrader IanHarper94
@IanHarper94, No they are not arbitrary... you can put them on a log scale, but in my case after the first and second base I check the delta i.e. the rate of change has to double from one base to the next, so I extrapolate that with a Gann Box to match up the levels with percentages to get the full extent of this particular advance. Get's past 50% 140 is a home run, no doubt at all.

Gann Box provides the time estimate too, to get the origin use zig zag to get the lowest extremum before it crossed an MA, like 100 SMA,200 SMA etc
IanHarper94 KeTrader
@KeTrader, I see... Is there a name to this technique? whats the success rate? Its hard to believe CGC will do what you say after we've ran so hard already
KeTrader IanHarper94
@IanHarper94, mmh I don't have a name for it, I use it everyday though --- markets are fractals and there are smaller less spectacular instances all over. You can find the same conclusion by using Elliot Waves or ABCD pattern... a parabolic advance for me is just a special case of an Elliot Wave or two ABCD patterns back to back, the first ABCD being bigger than the first. Sort of the same way you would visualize one side of an H&S pattern as just a single ABCD pattern (it is actually).

Let me see if I can find more regular seeming advances (seem normal because they are just within the expected range of movement), like everything else once you start seeing it becomes natural. So picking this out and the levels wasn't hard.
IanHarper94 KeTrader
@KeTrader, does Elliot Wave theory pick out exact price levels? I thought it was just an arbitrary structure to market movements, but I never looked into it much and don't understand it (so by default I don't think it works). Fib levels I find work and I believe they do because the golden ratio appears in many different places in nature. I'm a Theoretical Physicist so I know mathematics quite well, and I actually thought fib retracements would be BS when I first saw them, but after seem them work as well as they have I've changed my opinion
KeTrader IanHarper94
@IanHarper94, lol, no Elliot Wave counters use the pullbacks to predict mostly the next move. ABCD patterns and use of the ratios in Harmonic patterns not precise most of the time either, and there are a number of forms the harmonic patterns can take but pretty good if both are used with Fibs.

My price prediction is solely based on the rate of change from one pullback to the next (that is how I find the levels the first two levels and extrapolate that), most advances end or become exhausted after the fourth expansion (the last and the biggest from my 50% to 100%).

Try it out with the monthly Gold chart\ Silver \ CVSI \ Bitcoin... pretty simple and will all line up pretty neatly... i.e. with knowing the first two levels you could tell where the target ought to be. Often price overshoots, going below your target is the signal to short. So you make money too with the collapse of the bubble.

I have gotten better at it (and I have seen other guys who have other iterations of similar techniques).

I think 3 months from now (by January it ought to have finished the pullback after it hits 50%) we can check out with hindsight.

Below check chart of the same sort of analysis on earlier stages of Bitcoin
-origin crossed my SMAs (89,178 - 100 or 200 would do fine),
-with price at 830 and 1328 I could get 2300 and 4300,
-the advance in this case went on!!
-4300 now becomes for me 11.25% - which would have made the peak around 37390, but half of that is where it peaked 50% (18695) not bad for a second wave and prediction of important level.

Each level is a target and depends on trader what you want to do at that point. Hope it has helped!!
KeTrader KeTrader
@KeTrader, 4300 =12.5 % not 11.25% -
IanHarper94 KeTrader
@KeTrader, Interesting technique, I'll probably sitck to fibs for now. Am hoping you're wrong on CGC and we pull back because I sold most of my shares!
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