McGuireTO

CGC bulls proving nothing to me

NYSE:CGC   CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION
CGC started the day Friday with a gap down open just above our key daily level, providing a great bottom-fishing opportunity to play in our daily equilibrium. The entire move was given back in the afternoon when news came out of Canopy withdrawing their 'Chronic By Dre' trademark request after forgetting to get permission from the rapper to use his name. The result is a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart , still within our daily equilibrium, and still very close to a bear break. Hourly RSI has cooled and could very easily see a significant move down. Turning on after hours (American ticker only) you can see the price rejecting from EMAs and providing a bear flag setup if the low of the afternoon sell-off 48.55 breaks.

The past two weeks on the daily chart have been a chopfest and I've been sitting on my hands waiting for it to play out, so we can finally have some clarity for the short term. I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt here, they need to prove it to me. First step would be to hold our key level 48.02 and break Friday's high 51.21.

Key range for me is 48.02 - 55.69. Until one of these levels break, I don't expect much trading opportunity as the range is so narrow it's difficult to find a pattern to play off of. If we break bullish , I will be a buyer looking for a new all time high heading into Oct 17th, and if we break bearish , I'll be entering as a short looking for a 5-7% move to the downside.

If we break bearish I would zoom out to the weekly chart and anticipate forming a weekly equilibrium, with a new higher low above 40.68. After covering my short I would be looking to enter long, as a range of 40.68 - 55.69 is more than enough room to play within and not have to worry about choppy price action giving false signals.

Reading the psychology of the chart, the past four days have clearly seen traders taking profit as they run out of patience waiting for new buyers. Many people are anticipating a run into Oct 17th, but I'm becoming skeptical there are many people looking to buy in the next two weeks that haven't already bought in.

I'm remaining neutral on what I think will happen, but we are 1% away from a bear break on the daily and 14% away from a bull break. The weekly chart remains very healthy.
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