CGC today broke its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down almost 15% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 75% of the run up from August 14th to all time high in the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Canopy has a lack of support here. We're closing in on the daily MA200 at 31.32, and have price action supports at 30.20 and 29.05. The gap to fill from before the Constellation investment announcement is down at 26.37. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. I've been watching this descending wedge pattern for the RSI for weeks at this point, and after a false breakout it has now dumped through the bottom of the wedge, backtested former support as resistance, and dropped to lower lows. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since June 6th 2017. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at historical bounce levels:
Daily - 31
4hr - 27
1hr - 22
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Canopy, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for CGC.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We've been in a downtrend for two weeks at this point with lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 32.31, MA200 31.32, 30.20, 29.05
Resistance: 40, 41.06, 42.43
After 42.43 there is a lack of resistance to 48.13
_____
For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Where we stand, Canopy has a lack of support here. We're closing in on the daily MA200 at 31.32, and have price action supports at 30.20 and 29.05. The gap to fill from before the Constellation investment announcement is down at 26.37. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. I've been watching this descending wedge pattern for the RSI for weeks at this point, and after a false breakout it has now dumped through the bottom of the wedge, backtested former support as resistance, and dropped to lower lows. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since June 6th 2017. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at historical bounce levels:
Daily - 31
4hr - 27
1hr - 22
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Canopy, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for CGC.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We've been in a downtrend for two weeks at this point with lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 32.31, MA200 31.32, 30.20, 29.05
Resistance: 40, 41.06, 42.43
After 42.43 there is a lack of resistance to 48.13
_____
For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.