From fakeout to breakout - what do we need to break the channel

Yesterday, the price made an attempt to go to the upside. We've been on this channel since the beginning of December, so it was hard to believe that such small volumes would lead to a reliable breakout; I was in the short before that, so I didn't open another at an even better price - just held it till the price returns.


Now, we are on the way to reach the bottom. What do we need for a breakout?

Increasing or constant volume and increasing the size of the candles would be convincing. One or two low-volume pinbars at the bottom would be fine as long they are low volume - that means a pause in the price action.


Another scenario would be decreasing the size of the candles with an increasing volume. That can be referred to as stopping volume.

If we approach a resistance in an initially impulsive move that increases in volume (effort) but decreases in size (result), it means that the price is purposely being slowed down.


In such a scenario, I would expect another breakout to the upside and it would be a true one. Especially if there is a fake breakout to the downside now.

Regardless, I think there is still some room to go short and close it in profit halfway through the next week.