WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK BEARISH CANDLE and this, following the doji pattern (uncertainty and indecision !) of the previous week !
This kind of price action should be seen, in this weekly time frame, as a negative TACTICAL SIGNAL for the upcoming week, calling for lower levels towards the next support level @ 104.68 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $92.93 -$123.68 recent rally.
Interesting to note that the weekly closing level @ $ 107.99 was below the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line which should be considered as the first warning signal of a tactical trend reversal in a broad strategic bull trend.
Indeed, in this weekly picture, the level of $ 104.68 matches both the MA21 and the ongoing first support trend line which started on April @ $ 92.93; below there is the Kijun-Sen or Base line which also roughly coîncides with the primary uptrend support line which is the most important and which is currently around $ 98.00.
The LAGGING LINE broke its uptrend support line and the RSI is showing a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME AND IN ODER TO NEUTRALISE THIS ONGOING NEW TACTICAL DOWNTREND WE NEED TO SEE A RECOVERY AND A SUSTAINABLE MOVE, AT LEAST ABOVE $ 114.10 AND THIS ON A WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL.
ON THE DOWNSIDE, A WEEKLY CLOSING BELOW $ 98.31 WOULD BE SEEN AS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK (S)
DAILY (D1)
On this daily picture, we can see several important information, which are the following :
1) FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGER LEVEL @ $ 116.64
2)BREAKOUT OF THE 21 MOVING AVERAGE (MA 21) @ $ 115.64
3) Last Friday price action triggered the breakout of the KIJUN-SEN or base line (@ 113.17)
4) Penetration into the cloud support zone $ 111.72 - $ 103.47
5) 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ $ 108.31 filled (rally $ 92.93-123.68)
6) Ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 104.28, just below the 61.8% Fib re t @ 104.68
All this information adds an additional bearish pressure.
In order to neutralise this ongoing tactical downside pressure, the CRUDE OIL need to quickly recover and hold above the top of the clouds, currently @ 111.72 and also above the KIJUN-SEN as a recovery confirmation.; such kind of move would also breakout the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line which is currently @ $ 112.80.
On the downside, a failure to hold above the bottom of the daily clouds, currently @ $103.47 would then, put the focus on the 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ $ 99.51.
Former double bottom of March & April ($93.53 - $ 92.93)
4 HOURS
Below all of TS , KS , MA21 and the clouds former support zone .
LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and RSI is still in bearish convergence progress, No bullish divergence detected yet !!
Current recovery being only corrective for the time being.
First resistance being @ 112.24 and more important @ $ 115.04
1 HOUR
Roughly same picture than for H4.
$ 112.31, previous low of June 16th should be seen as the first significant level to be broken to neutralize this downward pressure and it is also roughly the level of the KIJUN-sen or base line in this shorter time frame.
CONCLUSION :
The CRUDE OIL is currently in a TACTICAL DOWNSIDE CORRECTION MOVE (in which any tactical short positions should be managed accordingly with a tight stop loss (trailing stop methodology !) in a BROAD STRATEGIC BULL TREND, CALLING FOR HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE COMING WEEKS & MONTHS.
ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE $ 98.00 AREA, monthly KS and ongoing monthly support trend line (on a weekly Closing level) WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED BULLISH STRATEGIC SCENARIO !
Last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK BEARISH CANDLE and this, following the doji pattern (uncertainty and indecision !) of the previous week !
This kind of price action should be seen, in this weekly time frame, as a negative TACTICAL SIGNAL for the upcoming week, calling for lower levels towards the next support level @ 104.68 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $92.93 -$123.68 recent rally.
Interesting to note that the weekly closing level @ $ 107.99 was below the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line which should be considered as the first warning signal of a tactical trend reversal in a broad strategic bull trend.
Indeed, in this weekly picture, the level of $ 104.68 matches both the MA21 and the ongoing first support trend line which started on April @ $ 92.93; below there is the Kijun-Sen or Base line which also roughly coîncides with the primary uptrend support line which is the most important and which is currently around $ 98.00.
The LAGGING LINE broke its uptrend support line and the RSI is showing a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME AND IN ODER TO NEUTRALISE THIS ONGOING NEW TACTICAL DOWNTREND WE NEED TO SEE A RECOVERY AND A SUSTAINABLE MOVE, AT LEAST ABOVE $ 114.10 AND THIS ON A WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL.
ON THE DOWNSIDE, A WEEKLY CLOSING BELOW $ 98.31 WOULD BE SEEN AS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK (S)
DAILY (D1)
On this daily picture, we can see several important information, which are the following :
1) FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGER LEVEL @ $ 116.64
2)BREAKOUT OF THE 21 MOVING AVERAGE (MA 21) @ $ 115.64
3) Last Friday price action triggered the breakout of the KIJUN-SEN or base line (@ 113.17)
4) Penetration into the cloud support zone $ 111.72 - $ 103.47
5) 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ $ 108.31 filled (rally $ 92.93-123.68)
6) Ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 104.28, just below the 61.8% Fib re t @ 104.68
All this information adds an additional bearish pressure.
In order to neutralise this ongoing tactical downside pressure, the CRUDE OIL need to quickly recover and hold above the top of the clouds, currently @ 111.72 and also above the KIJUN-SEN as a recovery confirmation.; such kind of move would also breakout the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line which is currently @ $ 112.80.
On the downside, a failure to hold above the bottom of the daily clouds, currently @ $103.47 would then, put the focus on the 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ $ 99.51.
Former double bottom of March & April ($93.53 - $ 92.93)
4 HOURS
Below all of TS , KS , MA21 and the clouds former support zone .
LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and RSI is still in bearish convergence progress, No bullish divergence detected yet !!
Current recovery being only corrective for the time being.
First resistance being @ 112.24 and more important @ $ 115.04
1 HOUR
Roughly same picture than for H4.
$ 112.31, previous low of June 16th should be seen as the first significant level to be broken to neutralize this downward pressure and it is also roughly the level of the KIJUN-sen or base line in this shorter time frame.
CONCLUSION :
The CRUDE OIL is currently in a TACTICAL DOWNSIDE CORRECTION MOVE (in which any tactical short positions should be managed accordingly with a tight stop loss (trailing stop methodology !) in a BROAD STRATEGIC BULL TREND, CALLING FOR HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE COMING WEEKS & MONTHS.
ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE $ 98.00 AREA, monthly KS and ongoing monthly support trend line (on a weekly Closing level) WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED BULLISH STRATEGIC SCENARIO !
