picatris
Short

A difficult Oil trade. Probably bearish

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
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Here is one of those difficult situations, where long term and short term are at odds.

There is a long term bullish channel that has been holding prices for a long time, on the other hand, current uncertainty has caused the price to oscillate in a smaller, and more short term bear channel . Just above the current price there is some weak resistance not very well tested, yet it also coincides, at the present moment, with the top of the bear channel . Although price has been bullish , there was a 0.618 retracement from the most recent high which may be a clue to further bull pressure. Momentum ( MACD ) is also strong suggesting a good up move soon.

With all these mixed signals I am bearish overall. In the first place because if the next up move fails it will strengthen the bear pressure. Furthermore the risk reward ratio for the next swing clearly favors bearish moves, as the discernible support levels are quite low. Going bull might seem tempting but I smell a bull trap in the vicinity!
Skadoosh! and off to the stars it went reliving me of my money... The prospect last week was really bad.
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Not a good situation to be in, but resistance has held as predicted. Also the down channel was pierced. The prospect is not good on this one, but if resistance is holding, I'm still short!
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