Technician
Short

Is $30 per Barrel the next stop for #Oil

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
3321 32 47
I have been bearish on main industrial commodities like copper             and crude for a while..
Here is my view on Copper             that i published 18-months and 8 months ago

Copper: One Pretty Bearish Scenario

Copper: Decision Time!


Oil:
Copper Warns for a Reversal in Oil !

Oil heading for a break-down #oil #forex


So what's likely next?

The FED is one step close to a rate hike and China's economic outlook remains uncertain. Technically, both commodities are correlated.. Copper             remains in a strong downtrend, after completing the head and shoulders pattern. The ideal target for the pattern suggest that copper             could retest the long term support levels near 1.65-1.45 area. . Meantime Crude has broken the main long term rising trend line on the logarithmic scale chart above. Even if you move to the linear(normal) scale chart, the main trend line has been broken last week as well. $30/barrel is not unlikely target anymore.

My best regards
Technician
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Killy_Mel
a year ago
Fed's rate hike is not much of a problem... they considered it back in 2011. at that time effective fed funds was below 0.10, now it is midrange about 0.13... so if they hike the range, it wont mean the effective range will shift. also it could also will signal that everything is OK in the states - so it can even lift Crude in the end
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AshleyWeyers
a year ago
I think so.... I have been saying this for 17 months now.....

OIL still SHORT. Update on my last analysis
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AshleyWeyers
a year ago
Hmmm, sorry, should have done it like this.

OIL still SHORT. Update on my last analysis
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CajunXChange
a year ago
snapshot

Totally agree. Been saying this is typical mean reversion. Log chart is what matters imo...See dates
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CajunXChange CajunXChange
a year ago
snapshot
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CajunXChange CajunXChange
a year ago
sat back and watched the 62 handle for almost two months
snapshot
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CajunXChange CajunXChange
a year ago
snapshot

With the S&P.
It may sound like Im boasting too much but wti and the s&p are my two standouts that are still holding til this day.
PS
You're work is admired on this end
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ITM.Trading
a year ago
when oil hits $30 that will be the time to dump every cent you have into energy stocks with strong balance sheets then go to sleep for 10 years
+2 Reply
jangseohee ITM.Trading
a year ago
i called it, show hand
but not ten years
perhaps 3 years is enough ^_^
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Victor.Y.F ITM.Trading
a year ago
Maybe oil will go to $21
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Lanmar PRO ITM.Trading
a year ago
No doubt my friend. No doubt.
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Lanmar PRO Lanmar
a year ago
No doubt about going long energy stocks and going to sleep, at some point at least - not oil at $21.
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jangseohee
a year ago
snapshot

43-45 is critical
if that couldn't hold
i will agree that it drops to early 30s
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+1 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO jangseohee
a year ago
Great perspective J, nicely done.
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hehe
a year ago
I agree:

snapshot
+1 Reply
Pip-thief
a year ago
Sorry buddy but I don't agree with you on this, you say copper is in a strong downtrend, that monthly chart suggests otherwise. We are in fact in an area of monthly structure support which if holds, would form a basis for copper to continue its rise from its position before the start of 2002. I would argue that copper is in fact in a correction phase as opposed to a strong downtrend
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Technician TOP Pip-thief
a year ago
Why be sorry? totally respect the opposite view..
Copper has lost nearly 50% of its value from peak. And i think ti will go further. Its been in a downtrend since March 2011( 4 years+). A one year plus trend is considered a long term trend according to dow theory. So we are in a long term bear market for copper. Anyway, i understand your point of view and you could be right that it will move higher again.
+1 Reply
Pip-thief Technician
a year ago
Have to admit though, id be too nervous to take a copper long position !
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LastBattle
a year ago
FED is just hot air now :D Yellen have been trying to hike it since 2012..
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ChartArt
a year ago
A lower low would be brutal, but maybe this is getting priced in:

Iraq oil production
https://twitter.com/Eurofaultlines/status/627843853844893696

Iran expects oil output to rise by 1 million barrels per day as soon as sanctions are lifted
https://twitter.com/Ind_Insights/status/627743182789419008
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Gekko.uk
a year ago
Doubt it
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andberg PRO
a year ago
looking at angle or slope of monthly trending line between 2004 and 2008 and trending line between 2009 and 2015, they are different. It was also different before 2004. I think we should think different today and last bottom of 33.20$ may not be acheive.

For those who are thinking that it can goes as low as previous low why not looking as low as 10$ ?

Remembering one stence of trading, if majority of traders are saying the same thing, they are wrong.

Please trade carefully
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ChartArt andberg
a year ago
"if majority of traders are saying the same thing, they are wrong"

very true, I see this happen on Tradingview way too often :) which is the reason why I had to analyze the chart myself
(https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/SdQAwOn4-Maximum-bear-scenario-for-Crude-Oil-until-2017-is-25-per-barrel/)
in order to come to the same conclusion. Although I think the price will make a strong bounce from the $39-$40 area, but it may not be the bottom.
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smitheric1970 PRO andberg
a year ago
It can very well head to the 10 dollar range. It will of course be volatile in the meantime but 60 may very well be our long term high and 12 our long term low. With that, rather than assuming anything, I'd really like to hear all of your thoughts on our major inflection points. 56.5, 49.5, 38.5, 33.9, 26.4???
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andberg PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
Thank you for your comments, technically, from what I see, the maximum long term would be within last major trending range wich occured between 2010 and 2014, 90$ +/- 20$. Then the minimum would be near last major low wich occured end of 2008, around 30$. Meantime, I don't beleive that CL1! will go Under 42$ thus forming a double bottom. After that we may see a replay of 2004-2006 with plenty of trading opportunities with many support-resistence levels BUT we never know how low can go any trading values especially if all the markets continue to slip. The question would be "do they want all of them to be broke ?" I suppose the answer should be no, because they are already making plenty of money and sure they want some more and to do some more they need workers in their companies to build their boats, helicopters, supercars, champagne and more than that, peaceful environnement. To resume my thoughts, short oil for now and be prepare to switch anytime whatsoever the value of CL1!
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ChartArt
a year ago
I'm not a fan of shorting at a potential bottom after a price has already fallen so much. But Iran will flood the market with much more oil in the future after they got the sanctions removing deal with the USA. Here is my maximum bearish scenario for the oil price ($25):


Maximum bear scenario for Crude Oil until 2017 is $25 per barrel



snapshot
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smitheric1970 PRO MIDAS_Technical_Analysis
a year ago
Thanks M, I like this. I am also anticipating seeing oil in the low 20's. I believe we will soon see a consolidation area form between the June highs 62.50'ish and the upcoming lows (32-42?), that consolidation area will eventually break down to new lows sub 30. Just my thoughts.

Good trading!
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Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Technician, I think you are right, but what normally happens is that it will spike to test the testline as resistance instead of support. So it might make a higher high even for this year before further drop.
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smitheric1970 PRO Yahia.Awes
a year ago
We can look to 2004 and 2009 for clues to what the price action and inflection points will be during the next leg down. We are currently in a range between 36 and 48.7. Inflection points between those prices are at approx 45 and 40.4;
Between 36 and 40.4 their are potential retraces back up to either 45 or 48.7 prior to starting our next leg down to the 33 area.
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Killy_Mel
a year ago
could also be 15 dollar target, if the trend holds...

snapshot
- target is lower 1st standard deviation from 20 year (240 months) mean
+1 Reply
prasanro
4 months ago
sir please post on your view on us oil--wti
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