Technician
Short

Is $30 per Barrel the next stop for #Oil

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
3342 32 48
I have been bearish on main industrial commodities like copper             and crude for a while..
Here is my view on Copper             that i published 18-months and 8 months ago

Copper: One Pretty Bearish Scenario

Copper: Decision Time!


Oil:
Copper Warns for a Reversal in Oil !

Oil heading for a break-down #oil #forex


So what's likely next?

The FED is one step close to a rate hike and China's economic outlook remains uncertain. Technically, both commodities are correlated.. Copper             remains in a strong downtrend, after completing the head and shoulders pattern. The ideal target for the pattern suggest that copper             could retest the long term support levels near 1.65-1.45 area. . Meantime Crude has broken the main long term rising trend line on the logarithmic scale chart above. Even if you move to the linear(normal) scale chart, the main trend line has been broken last week as well. $30/barrel is not unlikely target anymore.

My best regards
Technician
Subscribe to my trading portal http://thefxchannel.com
We are finally LIVE https://thefxchannel.com
sir please post on your view on us oil--wti
Reply
could also be 15 dollar target, if the trend holds...

snapshot
- target is lower 1st standard deviation from 20 year (240 months) mean
+1 Reply
Technician, I think you are right, but what normally happens is that it will spike to test the testline as resistance instead of support. So it might make a higher high even for this year before further drop.
Reply
We can look to 2004 and 2009 for clues to what the price action and inflection points will be during the next leg down. We are currently in a range between 36 and 48.7. Inflection points between those prices are at approx 45 and 40.4;
Between 36 and 40.4 their are potential retraces back up to either 45 or 48.7 prior to starting our next leg down to the 33 area.
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO MIDAS_Technical_Analysis
Thanks M, I like this. I am also anticipating seeing oil in the low 20's. I believe we will soon see a consolidation area form between the June highs 62.50'ish and the upcoming lows (32-42?), that consolidation area will eventually break down to new lows sub 30. Just my thoughts.

Good trading!
Reply
I'm not a fan of shorting at a potential bottom after a price has already fallen so much. But Iran will flood the market with much more oil in the future after they got the sanctions removing deal with the USA. Here is my maximum bearish scenario for the oil price ($25):


Maximum bear scenario for Crude Oil until 2017 is $25 per barrel



snapshot
Reply
looking at angle or slope of monthly trending line between 2004 and 2008 and trending line between 2009 and 2015, they are different. It was also different before 2004. I think we should think different today and last bottom of 33.20$ may not be acheive.

For those who are thinking that it can goes as low as previous low why not looking as low as 10$ ?

Remembering one stence of trading, if majority of traders are saying the same thing, they are wrong.

Please trade carefully
Reply
ChartArt andberg
"if majority of traders are saying the same thing, they are wrong"

very true, I see this happen on Tradingview way too often :) which is the reason why I had to analyze the chart myself
(https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/SdQAwOn4-Maximum-bear-scenario-for-Crude-Oil-until-2017-is-25-per-barrel/)
in order to come to the same conclusion. Although I think the price will make a strong bounce from the $39-$40 area, but it may not be the bottom.
Reply
It can very well head to the 10 dollar range. It will of course be volatile in the meantime but 60 may very well be our long term high and 12 our long term low. With that, rather than assuming anything, I'd really like to hear all of your thoughts on our major inflection points. 56.5, 49.5, 38.5, 33.9, 26.4???
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
Malaysia
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Priority Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out