Last bear phase?, vertical channel

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
1428 57 7
After the head & shoulder patten completed by end of July, oil             price has been in free falling channel starting with -25 degree of steepness and currently in -54 degree of steepness. It is liken to a roller coaster ride almost 3/4 down from a top. Yup, that is that kind of craziness analogous in this price. Can price fall all the way to fibo 2.618 level of 64.66? when my previous post shown support around 68.

This is the time when investors do not want to miss the boat. They will go short full blown hoping to catch the downside momentum. And of course they will make some initially only to give more back to Mr. Crude Oil             later.
I make an attempt to catch a falling sharp knife at 58.15 first
dp jangseohee
What can I say? Nothing works, no divergencies, no nothing ...

Don't stay in front of the freight train ...

Which means it can reverse soon :)
Hi DP ;-)
jangseohee Mickette
Hi Mickette,
using Harmonic pattern, any price level to look up for?
Mickette jangseohee
Get ready close @ 55.64 for a CRAB BULL ext. 161.8%
I see an AB-CD downmove too (161.8% ext @ 55.01)
because of big wins from other trades, i can afford to use the smallest portion to test with very tight stop loss
you are right, no divergences on daily/weekly chart, RSI keeps oversold, Fibo level fails, do not know when it will stop and my humble hunch anticipate at least a V shape recovery. How about 1hr/2hr? i see a potential divergence though not indicating a big move, price flies away from 8ema on daily chart

in order to have higher probabilities of reversal, need to patiently wait until a weekly DOJI or Dec monthly DOJI aint it, another possible scenario, a big green marubozu bar out of no where
no sign of lower wicks, its 100% bears
dp jangseohee
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen!

I hope, Mickette and JangSeoHee, you are having great weekend! Sorry for been out for almost the whole Friday.

Here are two 1h graphs - UKOIL and USOIL. Both are highly correlated, all mis-correlations are corrected on the scale of a day. For some reason, UKOIL is much nicer and harmonic and kinda less volatile.

Both USOIL and UKOIL reveal the same pattern of AB=CD, which could rebound the price of USOIL to $60.41 and UKOIL to $63.54 inside the corresponding descending channels.

USOIL RSI forms symmetric triangle and the volatility (ATR) is growing. I'm afraid of blow-up resolution of the situation to the upside.

It's scary for me to be short Crude at the moment.
+1 Reply
Hello DP ;-)
AB-CD running to 55.00 max
dp Mickette
Bonsoir Mickette,

Yes, I see that big AB=CD, but I'm talking about smaller AB=CD at the very tail of current drop, which can temporary return price to 60.41 before going to 55.00 for good, as you tell.

That's small thing, but I cold you it for re-entry :)
No "re-entry". Or you stick on your running short or you seat on your hands.
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