jangseohee

Last bear phase?, vertical channel

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
1426 57 7
After the head & shoulder patten completed by end of July, oil             price has been in free falling channel starting with -25 degree of steepness and currently in -54 degree of steepness. It is liken to a roller coaster ride almost 3/4 down from a top. Yup, that is that kind of craziness analogous in this price. Can price fall all the way to fibo 2.618 level of 64.66? when my previous post shown support around 68.

This is the time when investors do not want to miss the boat. They will go short full blown hoping to catch the downside momentum . And of course they will make some initially only to give more back to Mr. Crude Oil             later.
LastBattle
2 years ago
Agree, that'll make a freaking good OTE zone for buying.
Downtrend don't usually end just like that but a panic :)

+1
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jangseohee LastBattle
2 years ago
When investor starting to add on (greediness in shorting)... i would prefer to shun away :-)
I still think my long term post support @68 is more viable, but i will let Mr. Crude Oil decides
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dREi
2 years ago
disagree sir. it will bounce and retrace soon.
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jangseohee dREi
2 years ago
A gap down the next trading day would be even better
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dREi jangseohee
2 years ago
sorry sir. it will flight to 80-83ish.
-charlietango
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JoshL PRO dREi
2 years ago
Adrian, is this your view on Oil then?:
Crude Oil - Retracement or Reversal?


I personally think we will see a bounce soon around the 74.00-75.00 area ( monthly support )
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jangseohee JoshL
2 years ago
You got a point by using Gartley Harmonic wave, i do not understand it a lot, so i will only keep it as reference :-)
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dREi jangseohee
2 years ago
told ya. *gigols* :3
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jangseohee JoshL
2 years ago
Besides, there is always another round of wash up to triggered the buy stop loss
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jangseohee
2 years ago
OPEC has a technical chart in their office!
+2 Reply
Very nice. I have the same outlook. I believe we'll see $60/bbl. It's shaping up to be 2008 IMHO.
Que 2008
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Both of us has some confluence, but by using different technical tools and the swing point, we anticipated different outcome.
67-68 is based on long term uptrend channel bottom support + 200ema for monthly chart.
While you are using weekly chart, which also make sense as well
67-68 dollar a barrel for support
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dREi jangseohee
2 years ago
liked. ^_^
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Approaching 60 :-)
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Yes, hell of a trade so far. I think we can still see mid to low-50's prior to summer.
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Yea man, still not sure whether stock will follow the same path :-)
Another big marubozu for SPX/DJIA/COMP should be good
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
And there we have it! I expect the US to see inflation rates near EZ levels next year.
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Hands down mate! As it continues to plunge into Sub-50s..
which coincide with my other charts of PROLONG tumbling of oil price indicating a bad sign because DEMAND is really diminishing, thereby triggered a whole series of ripple effects from the currency market (about 5 Trillion/day) which carries it to BOND market (about 600Trillion in total) and finally the real undercurrent TSUNAMI swept stock market (only ~60Trillion in total at best) off its feet. BUT remember: We are only in midst of DEC, i wouldn't not be surprise if a full force of BULL gladiators charge from nowhere to bring the price to a DOJI in month close
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jangseohee
2 years ago
US has become the largest oil producer replacing Saudi Arabia as number 1 solely base on the shale oil production, now if price have another round of plunge below 60, those mutual funds who allocated at least 15-20% investment in Exploration & Production companies through JUNK (High yield) Bond will definitely feel more pinch, what would they do then? Make an exit! which could create a chain reaction in stock market.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
So it did kissed the 2.618 Fib level (64.66) on 1 Dec!
Any one of you who shorted after this chart was posted would have a big smile :-)
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
I quit around $66 and it was one nice hell of a down-slide!

Situation is murky at the moment, IMO. I see that traders have taken different directions now, I can assume that there is a whole bunch of the stops around $63.75.

One can expect that Big Guys will roll the stops in both directions. Bullish RSI divergence in not an option anymore on the daily, and I incline a bit more for further down-slide for fundamental reasons -- shale oil production will be profitable even at $30/b, since they now managed to drill 4 holes at 1 rig instead of single one (rig cost itself is enormous in cost of production). Plus all the political cards are in favor of further oil drop.

We'll see how the events develop in very short time.
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Mickette dp
2 years ago
Congratulation. Nice trip you made my friend. Ready for the reversal?
snapshot
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dp Mickette
2 years ago
Bonjour Mickette and thank for keeping us posted!

Now turning to smaller scales to the process :)
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
Guten Tag Mickette,
Gartley expert indeed
yes, one of the few big profits
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
Yes, when it comes to a S/R level that will determine the next direction in future, you see bloodshed between bulls and bears
And this are the time bulls and bears get "Whipsaw" all over the place :-)

Enter at 74.69 exited at 64.63
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
Citi is expecting bounce up:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/247321
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
Price mostly go in different direction to what analyst says..:-)
meaning more down side most probably
I don read and follow news, just confusing my decision
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
as expected, price plunge even futher.. after Citi "analyst" made that comments
Just had a quick short from 65.10 and took profit right now 63.6, 10 contracts
:-)
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
Congratulations! Why did you quit @63.6, please?
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
Things can changes 360 degree the next day, so Carpe Diem first
We are only around mid-month, anything can happen. I am still anticipating a monthly pin bar/DOJI
Big lesson, "Never listen to analyst, unless you trade in opposite in direction" :-)
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
Good point.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
Let's see if we get monthly DOJI by 31 Dec
basically as low as it can get..
don be surprise "Sheikhs" willing to cut price... these people are "Directors" better than Oscar award winners
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jangseohee
2 years ago
BOC poke the Shanghai Composite Index balloon with a needle, self-inflicted pain LMAO
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jangseohee
2 years ago
OPEC delibrately lower the 2015 forecast to push the oil further, i am getting abit greedy on long though
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
I just posted https://www.tradingview.com/e/iroIC8pl/
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jangseohee
2 years ago
I make an attempt to catch a falling sharp knife at 58.15 first
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
What can I say? Nothing works, no divergencies, no nothing ...

Don't stay in front of the freight train ...

Which means it can reverse soon :)
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Mickette dp
2 years ago
Hi DP ;-)
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
Hi Mickette,
using Harmonic pattern, any price level to look up for?
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
Get ready close @ 55.64 for a CRAB BULL ext. 161.8%
I see an AB-CD downmove too (161.8% ext @ 55.01)
snapshot
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
because of big wins from other trades, i can afford to use the smallest portion to test with very tight stop loss
you are right, no divergences on daily/weekly chart, RSI keeps oversold, Fibo level fails, do not know when it will stop and my humble hunch anticipate at least a V shape recovery. How about 1hr/2hr? i see a potential divergence though not indicating a big move, price flies away from 8ema on daily chart

in order to have higher probabilities of reversal, need to patiently wait until a weekly DOJI or Dec monthly DOJI aint it, another possible scenario, a big green marubozu bar out of no where
no sign of lower wicks, its 100% bears
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen!

I hope, Mickette and JangSeoHee, you are having great weekend! Sorry for been out for almost the whole Friday.

Here are two 1h graphs - UKOIL and USOIL. Both are highly correlated, all mis-correlations are corrected on the scale of a day. For some reason, UKOIL is much nicer and harmonic and kinda less volatile.

Both USOIL and UKOIL reveal the same pattern of AB=CD, which could rebound the price of USOIL to $60.41 and UKOIL to $63.54 inside the corresponding descending channels.

USOIL RSI forms symmetric triangle and the volatility (ATR) is growing. I'm afraid of blow-up resolution of the situation to the upside.

It's scary for me to be short Crude at the moment.
snapshot
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Mickette dp
2 years ago
Hello DP ;-)
AB-CD running to 55.00 max
snapshot
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dp Mickette
2 years ago
Bonsoir Mickette,

Yes, I see that big AB=CD, but I'm talking about smaller AB=CD at the very tail of current drop, which can temporary return price to 60.41 before going to 55.00 for good, as you tell.

That's small thing, but I cold you it for re-entry :)
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Mickette dp
2 years ago
No "re-entry". Or you stick on your running short or you seat on your hands.
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dp Mickette
2 years ago
Oh, no ... Must be the cover of Vogue or Vanity Fair, or something ...

I like this new photo. Another one I liked was the one you placed on BBT just before departure.

Sitting on the hands, ma chere ...

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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
How's your weekend DP?
i am idiot when it comes to AB=CD
but from the RSI, i see that if the triangle holds true, still abit downside for RSI to hit the support :-)
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
The weekend was kinda mess tuning Linux, which I installed on Macbook Air (crazy, isn't it?) as a second partition. So now I'm able to travel not like a mule with desktop-replacement laptop, but just light briefcase.

I placed two references explaining AB=CD on another thread, did you see it?
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
Yup
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dp dp
2 years ago
Small blue AB=CD has been accomplished on the lower bound of channel.

Is this Libya stopping production, or magic of harmonic patterns? ];-)
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dp jangseohee
2 years ago
And UKOIL
snapshot
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
another thing to look up for (i can only know this on the very day of happening)
If and only if, price of crude is able to fall a good ten dollar on a daily basis (sound absurd?) that is the moment i go BIG LONG
in fact, the energy stock is already ranging and ready for a FINAL spike down to get rid of new dump shorts and reverse back to 60, and we still have two weeks, i still feel that a monthly DOJI could happen
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
the (market/chart makers) :-)
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IvanLabrie TOP jangseohee
2 years ago
the market/CHART makers, good one :p
Follow their lead...
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
We are trying to figure out what and how these Central banks wants to manipulate the chart to get 80% losers and pay 20% winners they take the remaining 60%
If i get it wrong, my butt got spanked by them (Grin Grin)
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IvanLabrie TOP jangseohee
2 years ago
We don't risk that much, so no biggie...just keep trying until we bank a big one ;)
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jangseohee dp
2 years ago
where are you dp?
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