Daring call for a bottom now?

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
1781 58 12
We all know that to make money in any market, all we need to do is to buy low sell high (excluding shorting)
Hence, bottom fishing is a risky and yet extremely rewarding approach to accumulate when the market are too bloody

Let's take a look at this monthly log chart since 1989. Since this is a daring bottom call, i will exclude the RSI overbought that corresponds to oil             price topping.

For the past 15-16 years, there were only 3 instances when RSI hit a monthly oversold value of as close as 30 highlighted in blue circle. And each times RSI became oversold as highlighted, oil             price rebound in V-shape manner making considerable upside movement.

Now the same situation has presented in front of you yet again on the 4th time. Do i have the gut to buy now? What is my exit strategy if thing goes against my anticipation?

It is too simplistic ain't it? Investment advice always preach that past repeated performance DOES NOT guarantee that it will happen again.

P.S. My humble anticipation for worst case scenario for NYMEX crude oil             price is ~39 where this level has been support and resistance before.
Hi DP where are you?
We are heading for 50s before OPEC meeting
Oops catching the falling knife at 58.15
although the oil price drops so as the commodities, but my daily expenses keep going up! Inflation still going on
Petrol station here do not reduce their petrol price :-(
Mickette jangseohee
The government always taxes its citizen at the end: at the petrol station.
even if price move upwards, it is subjected to the triangle pattern!
China's been buying up futures as of late. Interesting to see if big companies that rely on oil start buying up oil futures. Saudi's are set on maintaining supply where it is.
menorad QuantitativeExhaustion
Actually this was in the news today WSJ "Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel" http://online.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-believes-oil-prices-could-stabilize-around-60-a-barrel-1417623664
Seeing and doing are too different things.
I see oil at $60, but I'm not going to do anything about my supply. Your problem you deal with it.
+1 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
Hi JR, how do you find out that China has been buying crude oil futures long contract?
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