Hence, bottom fishing is a risky and yet extremely rewarding approach to accumulate when the market are too bloody
Let's take a look at this monthly log chart since 1989. Since this is a daring bottom call, i will exclude the overbought that corresponds to oil price topping.
For the past 15-16 years, there were only 3 instances when hit a monthly oversold value of as close as 30 highlighted in blue circle. And each times became oversold as highlighted, oil price rebound in V-shape manner making considerable upside movement.
Now the same situation has presented in front of you yet again on the 4th time. Do i have the gut to buy now? What is my exit strategy if thing goes against my anticipation?
It is too simplistic ain't it? Investment advice always preach that past repeated performance DOES NOT guarantee that it will happen again.
P.S. My humble anticipation for worst case scenario for NYMEX crude oil price is ~39 where this level has been before.