We all know that to make money in any market, all we need to do is to buy low sell high (excluding shorting)

Hence, bottom fishing is a risky and yet extremely rewarding approach to accumulate when the market are too bloody

Let's take a look at this monthly log chart since 1989. Since this is a daring bottom call, i will exclude the RSI overbought that corresponds to oil price topping.

For the past 15-16 years, there were only 3 instances when RSI hit a monthly oversold value of as close as 30 highlighted in blue circle. And each times RSI became oversold as highlighted, oil price rebound in V-shape manner making considerable upside movement.

Now the same situation has presented in front of you yet again on the 4th time. Do i have the gut to buy now? What is my exit strategy if thing goes against my anticipation?

It is too simplistic ain't it? Investment advice always preach that past repeated performance DOES NOT guarantee that it will happen again.

P.S. My humble anticipation for worst case scenario for NYMEX crude oil price is ~39 where this level has been support and resistance before.

Hence, bottom fishing is a risky and yet extremely rewarding approach to accumulate when the market are too bloody

Let's take a look at this monthly log chart since 1989. Since this is a daring bottom call, i will exclude the RSI overbought that corresponds to oil price topping.

For the past 15-16 years, there were only 3 instances when RSI hit a monthly oversold value of as close as 30 highlighted in blue circle. And each times RSI became oversold as highlighted, oil price rebound in V-shape manner making considerable upside movement.

Now the same situation has presented in front of you yet again on the 4th time. Do i have the gut to buy now? What is my exit strategy if thing goes against my anticipation?

It is too simplistic ain't it? Investment advice always preach that past repeated performance DOES NOT guarantee that it will happen again.

P.S. My humble anticipation for worst case scenario for NYMEX crude oil price is ~39 where this level has been support and resistance before.

If price continue to fall, then your chart prediction would come through

In normal-normal scale it corresponds to exponential, isn't it?

If you toggle the "log" buttom two times, you will see "changes"

Look, just a simple math:

Let log( p(t) ) = A*t +B, where A and B are the constants, that's what you see as a straight line on your graph. Here "t" is the time "p(t)" is the price.

Now let's take exponent of both sides: 10^( log(p(t) ) = p(t) = 10^( A*t+B) = C*D^t, with new constants D=10^A and C=10^B.

So, we have p(t) = C*D^t in normal coordinates. Here symbol "^" means "to the power of", just like 2*2 = 2^2.

i only understand that log will change the trendline and therefore S/R line

The good question is -- why we prefer linear support over curved one? :)

The answer would probably be because we just came out of no-computers era :D

If seriously -- exponential support would be probably too fastly growing for oil, assuming that asset price should grow exponentially in time.

which is why AlphaxRX notice my "misalignment"

thats why every technical tools has pros and cons, i have been using log for quite sometime, ;-)

When the price in any chart shoot up very fast, we tend to get a "Parabolic" price action rendering trendline useless :-)

"Blow-up" growth exists for finite time until t=T, not as exponential or linear growth, which exists for the whole time-axis.

The word "parabolic" is mistakenly used , it has nothing in common with parabola. It's explainable though, since people who observed such growth which is faster than "t", assumed that any faster growth has to go as "t^2" (parabola), LOL

The name "parabolic" = "blow-up" is borrowed from physics of the shock waves, or light propagation in the optical fibers . In fact, from the shock waves first. That's happening when bomb blows -- there is formation of the shock wave, the destructive pressure jump propagating in the air, tearing away hands and legs, God forbid. The pressure profile in such shock waves follows this "blow-up" law. Same thing happens in the optical fibers, when you are getting internet signal in your house transparent fiber, through which you are connected to the outer world.

What is nice about "blow-up law"? You can predict from it when the bubble burst, i.e. close the position closer to the maximum point in price -- since the solution exists only until point t=T. You can be sure that there will be drop after t>T.

i have been getting even more PM on log vs arithmetric scale, though not the mathematical equation, but

taking the DXY log chart i posted as an example, the 30 years downtrend line is NOT broken yet, but a normal arithmetic scale of DXY HAS broken the 30 years downtrend line!

I don't see any contradiction in your observations.

You draw the straight line in normal coordinates, which is broken. Then you hit "log" button in the RHS of the screen and see another straight line, which is not broken, right?

The problem is there is programming mistake in TV, since the shape of your straight line has not been changed -- it remains straight.

Well, you can draw the straight line in log-normal coordinates too, that's no problem, but there is NO CONNECTION between straight line in the original normal-normal coordinates and log-normal coordinates you obtained by pushing "log" button. What you obtain, is just different arbitrary straight line.

Let me give you maybe more understandable explanation. Imagine that your normal-normal graph is drown on the piece of rubber, but not the rigid surface like computer screen or piece of paper. Let's draw the straight line on it.

Now pull the portion of the rubber by fingers in one point, and it'll get deformed, right? Both graph and the straight line! Straight line wont be straight anymore! Something like that happens when you go from normal to log scale.

You can draw as much as you like straight lines in the log scale, but when you release your fingers on the rubber sheet, it'll return to normal scale, and instead of straight line you again will get some curve.

Mathematically speaking, straight lines are not transformed into the same straight lines with logarithmic transformation back and force.

Therefore, don't get worried about non-crossing of the straight line in transformed log coordinates -- if we didn't have programming mistake in TV, you would get the same crossing situation, but the price graph would cross the CURVED line.

Please ask me another questions until we agree on the problem.

Let's look at the graph in normal coordinates where you've got the cross of the straight trend line by price. Get the date and time where you see the cross, and write on the piece of paper number corresponding the trend line at this point and, say, close price of the candle.

Now take the calculator, take the log of this numbers (that's exactly what TV does) and plot those numbers at the same date and time at log chart, which was draws by TV. You will see that one of this numbers will fall right at the candle, but another one will fall not on the trend line as supposed to be, but different place.

For those countries not using USD and need >USD 80 to be profitable..

its apocalypse time

OPEC made a strong statement that they are willing to let oil price stay down for at least a year. They have $736 billion banked up. Also, they have deleverage from last crisis by restructuring much of their debt. There's a good possibility market will test the downside.

If crude oil can hit 39 again, stock will definitely follow sue,

like you i will pawn every single thing i have, long it and keep for 2-3 years!

Are you a trading as well?

Copper looks ready to 3.00...

Watching NatGas for an eventual tremendous bounce very carefully...

Supporting Copper @ 3.00 is not a bad idea...

Bearish reversal GARTLEY is completed for now:

Petrol station here do not reduce their petrol price :-(

We are heading for 50s before OPEC meeting