WTI (CLV2019)....First leg of an impulsive move down
Hello Traders,
WTI (Continuous contract in front; CLV2019; NYMEX) has made a high at $58.76. This high meets the downsloping trendline, connecting the high of July 15 and even September 10. The development since is a clear „five-down“, that has declined in a base-channel (dark grey).
As long as price decline in this base-channel, we can simply suggest, that an impulse, in this case to the downside, is underway. So I labeled the decline from $58.76 to $54.- as waves 1-2 and 3.
A move „out of“ this channel suggests, that wave „3“ is done and wave „4“ is progressing. Note how perfect wave „4“ has „danced“ in the „deceleration-channel (red) and made a „three-up-down-up, a countertrend move.
So, penetrating the lower boundary of the channel suggests, that wave „5“ is indeed underway.
So, for the short-term, we can wait for a breakout of price to the lower boundary, what implies Wave „4“ is done and wave „5“ is underway.
A target zone for this wave is below the $54.- and the area of $53.18-53.05, which is the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of wave „i“ and the 0.618 Extension of the start from $58.76-54.- - 55.68, the possible wave „iv“ high!
On the other hand, an often achieved target range for a wave „iv“ countertrend is the wave „iv“ of one lesser degree, which is at $56.34!
As before, a decline below the lower boundary of the channel implies wave „v“ is underway, while a break of the upper suggests, in this case, wave „iv“ will morph into a more complex structure.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
WTI (Continuous contract in front; CLV2019; NYMEX) has made a high at $58.76. This high meets the downsloping trendline, connecting the high of July 15 and even September 10. The development since is a clear „five-down“, that has declined in a base-channel (dark grey).
As long as price decline in this base-channel, we can simply suggest, that an impulse, in this case to the downside, is underway. So I labeled the decline from $58.76 to $54.- as waves 1-2 and 3.
A move „out of“ this channel suggests, that wave „3“ is done and wave „4“ is progressing. Note how perfect wave „4“ has „danced“ in the „deceleration-channel (red) and made a „three-up-down-up, a countertrend move.
So, penetrating the lower boundary of the channel suggests, that wave „5“ is indeed underway.
So, for the short-term, we can wait for a breakout of price to the lower boundary, what implies Wave „4“ is done and wave „5“ is underway.
A target zone for this wave is below the $54.- and the area of $53.18-53.05, which is the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of wave „i“ and the 0.618 Extension of the start from $58.76-54.- - 55.68, the possible wave „iv“ high!
On the other hand, an often achieved target range for a wave „iv“ countertrend is the wave „iv“ of one lesser degree, which is at $56.34!
As before, a decline below the lower boundary of the channel implies wave „v“ is underway, while a break of the upper suggests, in this case, wave „iv“ will morph into a more complex structure.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!