My former Analysis was nearly perfect! WTI exploded and is traded above its former breakoutlevel @ 44$. The fast upmove ended at the 0,5 fibo @ 49,55$ - the normal correction Level. If WTI is falling back below 44$, i exspect a dip of the former low @ 37,7. Prices below this low will generate a new downwave with TP 32$.
On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Is it perhaps time for a Little Rebound? The RSI signs, that the market is very oversold and it seems that the indicator will turn into the buyingzone > 30, the likelihood of a Rebound increases. If Oil could brake it s downtrend @ 40,25$, a Rebound to the former breakoutlevel @ 44$ is thinkable. But as Long as Oil is trading below this (yellow) trendline it will make new Lows. Below the green Support line, the downtrend momentum will tighten, a further "selloff" could be exspected!
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
No sustainable signals for a trend reversal!
Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) -but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.
BRENT WITH BIG SHORTSIGNAL
Brent update Brent could not beat ist longterm downtrend!
After Iran testified, that it will perhaps double its production, brent only made one direction: downwards!With prices below the last valid "2" @ 62,5$ brent leaves his middleterm uptrend (green) behind and reentries
in its longterm downtrend.
As Long Brent is trading below 63,5$, the risk continuing to drop increases massively:
The logically inferable target of the longterm downtrend is
a.) 52,3$
b.) 45$
If Brent could sustainable snatch back the Level @ 63,5$ , the technical Situation relaxes
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On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
No sustainable signals for a trend reversal!
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) -but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.
BRENT WITH BIG SHORTSIGNAL
After Iran testified, that it will perhaps double its production, brent only made one direction: downwards!With prices below the last valid "2" @ 62,5$ brent leaves his middleterm uptrend (green) behind and reentries
in its longterm downtrend.
As Long Brent is trading below 63,5$, the risk continuing to drop increases massively:
The logically inferable target of the longterm downtrend is
a.) 52,3$
b.) 45$
If Brent could sustainable snatch back the Level @ 63,5$ , the technical Situation relaxes
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these posts and your LIKES let me know it is helpful to you. As always, any comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.