A look at the oil markets and price movement since 2008.
Oil is sitting at the 61 mark. it has reached a long term downtrend trendline, while also demand seems to recover. But where does oil go from here?
Positives:
Vaccinations lead to recovery of refining demand (Travel being the main driver)
Newer cars mean polymers - ABS a oil derivative.
Growth in mining industry (Lithium, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, etc) will lead to increase in ocean trade, and demand for heavy oil, increasing prices of brent, and WTI
Negative:
Growth in Greentech, and EV. This is the main driver in suppressing oil demand
Iran, Venezuela oil floods the market. fall in oil price
Indicators:
Oil majors moving away (Both Multinationals, and National players) are diversifying their assets and revenues towards electrification, and other goods. Oil producers are moving further down the downstream value chain.
Prognosis:
Oil will be range bound between 45 and 75 in 2021 with a bias towards the higher number. from its current levels it will be safe to go long
Positives:
Vaccinations lead to recovery of refining demand (Travel being the main driver)
Newer cars mean polymers - ABS a oil derivative.
Growth in mining industry (Lithium, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, etc) will lead to increase in ocean trade, and demand for heavy oil, increasing prices of brent, and WTI
Negative:
Growth in Greentech, and EV. This is the main driver in suppressing oil demand
Iran, Venezuela oil floods the market. fall in oil price
Indicators:
Oil majors moving away (Both Multinationals, and National players) are diversifying their assets and revenues towards electrification, and other goods. Oil producers are moving further down the downstream value chain.
Prognosis:
Oil will be range bound between 45 and 75 in 2021 with a bias towards the higher number. from its current levels it will be safe to go long
Trade active:
Looking at the hourly chart, it feels safe to go long from here. OPEC may want to lower prices back to the 40s. Iran not yet coming to the table for talks, Global demand looks positive with the Jansen vaccine approved in the US. India has a new vaccine, so even with increased infection rates, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. Only europe seems to be in a sad state with a complete screwup with the vaccination plans, yet southern EU countries need the tourists, and tourists mean travel, and therein lies the demand for more oil.
This was a healthy pullback to the 100EMA on the 4H chart. I am buying
This was a healthy pullback to the 100EMA on the 4H chart. I am buying
