zhipengcfel

Elliott wave analysis on oil in weekly chart (2016-04-09)

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Above is weekly chart of USOIL in log scale. Oil is in a wedge currently. It will meet an important resistance level at around 40~42.5. From elliott wave analysis this wedge has completed ABCD waves. The following wave E might bring oil to 31~32 again (The wave E might be a failed five waves. I do not think it will creat a new low because of the extended wave C). Afterwards oil's bearish which starts at July 7th, 2008 will finish and Oil's bull market will start.

From time analysis, the wave E will probably finish in the week of May 23th, 2016.

Notes: if oil breaks 40~42.5 resistance region and does not retrace back in the next two weeks, this analysis will be invalid.

Good luck for everyone!
Apr 10
Comment: Here is a monthly chart to compare. I changed the count for primary wave B a bit.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/z...
My point is oil will finish the bearish cycle soon, if you trade oil in long term it might be a good opportunity to build the long position in the following E wave. It will have a huge up after the E wave.
Thanks for sharing. I agree that oil was bottomed. But your wave 2 and 5 is longer than wave 3? that's weird for me. Could you pls explain that? THx.
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel PowerOfCapital
Do you mean the time period? The EW rule said that wave 3 can not be the shortest one comparing wave 1 and wave 5. Here the wave 3 is longer and deeper than wave 1 which meets the rule. Actually I have a different count for primary wave B so that the wave 2 will be much shorter. Here is another count for primary wave B in monthly chart.
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PowerOfCapital zhipengcfel
This time makes sense, sir.
+1 Reply
PowerOfCapital PowerOfCapital
Ha....where is your new weekly chart? where is your wave E? your monthly chart was not newest price. We see price was far away from 28.14.
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel PowerOfCapital
I changed the count of primary wave B. The wave E will not be affected.
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zhipengcfel PowerOfCapital
Thanks!
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ok,
thanks.
+1 Reply
You are welcome. Actually my point is oil will finish the bearish cycle soon, if you trade oil in long term it might be a good opportunity to build the long position in the following E wave. It will have a huge up after the E wave.
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AMBRISH zhipengcfel
O K. as per your chart oil is good buy around 32.00 level for long term.
thanks.
+1 Reply
You are welcome!
Reply
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