claydoctor
Short

Oil goes lower from here

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
422 10 6
Note the... I cloud squeeze and continued downtrend indication, downtrend channel, lack of volume this latest downturn(really low) compared to previous ups and downs, price up volume way down last move shows lack of commitment, S&P             reacts to oil             , and will do same this time for 13 days? or so to bottom of trend channel support or lower?, note the double pipe tops before entering the red boxes down turns. IMO
claydoctor
2 years ago
This Iran deal gets done and Iran oil stored in tankers off shore get delivered in a day, flooding market temp effects. Also, cheaper to store oil in US (ship to US) than store in tankers, half price sale, and safer. Estimates are at 80% stored space full now, only 20% left, if keep pumping will have to discount it more because no were to store it, cheaper to drop rice and sell than pay premium storage. Or perhaps, when that happens, stop pumping, and we finally get a supply reduction. Until then, we seek new bottom in price of oil. IMO
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO claydoctor
a year ago
Interested in your updated thoughts on this. I am very bearish on oil. I don't think we'll see much come out to the Iran talks on Monday; however, oil could be very interesting between opening on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
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claydoctor smitheric1970
a year ago
With so many oil producing nations needing cash flow, at any cost, any selling price, their economies cannot cut production to get price higher. They simply do not have that luxury. And with economies contracting, causing even less of demand for oil, and stock markets showing signs of cracking all over the world, I don't see the flow of oil changing anytime soon, unless there is some event that causes an artificial disruption in supply or the dollar crashes. I see the dollar either consolidating here or heading higher yet again, short term, so price has to go lower, or at least consolidate here for the forseeable future. I don't thing Greece will have any effect on oil directly, but the dollar may be effected. Its like you have to keep your head on a swivel, and your finger on the mouse click sell/buy button. Then there is planet X which we supposedly cannot see, and is heading for earth for a collision or near miss in September, so the edgy astronomers say. And the Shimatah, also in September, as well as 7 signs included the fourth of the four blood red moons in September, of the 7th - 7th shimatah, beginning the 50th year in The Jewish calander, which is supposed to signify something extra ordinary happens to Israel, good or bad I do not know, which also could effect oil's production and price. No shortage of fantastic events to happen. In any case, volatility has returned, so I would watch the VIX and the VXX more than anything, and play that rather than play a single stock or commodity. Actually, risk reward is safer. They are both at historic lows, and at the very bottom edge of the sell, meaning buy them now while they are still cheap. Best of fortunes.
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smitheric1970 PRO claydoctor
a year ago
Your combination of technical and fundamental is great! Agreed on the production not being cut. Even in the US (which is a REALLY small percentage of the worlds oil, although for some reason less rigs gets everyone hyped up... They have to continue high production because they are near defaulting on loans, I'd assume defaults would be renegotiated before they are all shut down. I will watch out for planet X!!!!! hahaha though I don't think there is a way to factor that into my trading! I do believe that the DX is near finished topping and that we will see it lose much of its 2014 gains but also believe we will see the correlation between oil and the US dollar slip a bit as oil heads down to new lows. Anyways, theres a lot of oil and Iran will most likely be adding a lot more soon.

Thanks much!!!
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claydoctor smitheric1970
a year ago
Oil now is like a currency, the more they produce adds liquidity, and since they know they are at a tipping point, and they cannot print anymore green backs, let's pump more oil. It has all the makings of "the party is over" (The bull run of everything), and its only denial, denial. Money managers are sad now. They cannot find anything else to say to keep people believers their money should stay in stocks, because they are the only alternative. Truth is people don't know where to put all that money now, in a bag at home maybe.
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smitheric1970 PRO claydoctor
a year ago
Just released - Greece debt crisis: Eurozone refuses bailout extension. Should be bearish for oil this week.
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claydoctor smitheric1970
a year ago
I think oil stays range bound between March lows and here.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
you know ichimoku as well ^_^
+1 Reply
claydoctor jangseohee
2 years ago
Thinking currency pairs heading for their own double tops before a new trend established. This next couple weeks big, especially when earnings start and the trend setters report.
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claydoctor claydoctor
2 years ago
Today, oil is tough to call, Iran talks, OPEC, Yemen, US storage reaching capacity soon, etc.
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