CLOV - Accumulation 🤔

dRends35 Updated   
NASDAQ:CLOV   Clover Health Investments, Corp
20% move today and CLOV has leaped back above the 2.618 long term fib taken way back in September.

So much fakery in this chart and more than I have time for but have a look at that bearish rejection star through 2.618 yesterday.

And so CLOV probes above the 50WMA for the first time since October.

And if you look at wyckoff schematics CLOV could now be at SOS.

This has been reached via an ABC 1:1 which I think will probably top in this area although could go further to 1.618.

If it does top and retrace to a bullish 0.382 then it would consolidate on the 2.618 long term fib and that could be BU/LPS.

Its a difficult one to call now because SPX is cliff walking and the black swan is having a war - these are uncertain times and uncertainty is bad for equities.

If SPX does have a big bounce then there is a good chance CLOV will pump hard, however there will be lots of names with better RR to choose from when SPX finally corrects, and thats what I'm really waiting for.

And if SPX collapses in this area you can be sure that this potential accumulation - looking very cute straight out a textbook, will become an X wave to see CLOV hit $0.5.

A "safer" way to play this would perhaps be to wait for an established trend to enter.

Not advice.

Well CLOV has pulled back approximately to the 0.382 and 2.618 fibs and had a good 9% bounce today to potentially consolidate this as an area of support.

And so this is potentially becoming a buy again, however there is still possibility this can become an X wave that will see another leg down.

So likely SPX direction will determine whether this is a bottom or not. If SPX bounces this chart is now ready for the more up I think.

So here's my strategy and its slightly passive because I'm net short and actually have no longs currently.

I would like to see SPX prove a bounce - and to do that it needs to close 2 daily candles above the supply trendline it has failed many times out. And not 1 but 2 to avoid the dreaded fakeout as you can see has already happend and can happen again.

2 daily candles and probably CLOV will be on its way by then but that will provide a decent entry with RR i think.

A more aggressive entry would simply be to buy in this area with no consideration of indexes - poison to choose.

Now I'll
DXY turning bearish and SPX piercing supply trendline - time to have a sip of coffee.

Well those 2 daily candle close on SPX have arrived and also this is triple witching week so very good chance a bounce is coming. For these reasons CLOV is now a buy I think for a swing trade.

However I'm not buying yet. CLOV looks quite corrective here and there is some bearish divergence on the 4H RSI. My bias on the markets is bullish short term but bearish mid-long term so I'll be patient here. I think it will tag those fibs again and maybe a bit more fakeout shenanigans before probably having a rally.

My ideal entry will be right on those fibs - $2.64 for a 0.382 retracement, however I will save a little because it could retrace all the way down to 0.7 ($2. 26) to overshoot the phi relative 0.618 ($2.35) which would also be a fakeout passed the longer term 2.618 fib. If price falls much below 0.7 then I'll begin to lean towards this entire area being re-distribution and heading lower rather than accumulation, but I'm quite confident CLOV is ready to move on up soon.

This outcome will be helped along by SPX also backing down somewhat. It is currently testing a higher trendline with a third touch. There is hidden divergence and RSI is near the upper band here so good chance SPX backs down before the real bounce arrives.

To add to the picture - Weekly RSI is now looking very bullish having first diverged upward from 23 it is now almost at the top of the first quadrant showing plenty of upside momentum.

And now here's my throw at the dartboard for fun. I think CLOV may top when the RSI is around the previous high at 66 - to maintain relative balance. And if/when price does touch I will probably sell there.

Into the week close both CLOV and SPX have pushed on.

CLOV had another wave up to pass the previous high and so this is now a 5 wave sequence still in process. This is clearly a corrective not impulsive move and this is reflected first in the equidistant A:C 1:1 ratio @$3.16 and it would appear that C:E may form a weaker 1:0.618 ratio @ $3.39; revealing a weakening trend. Price has moved passed that area however this can be considered as overshoot which may be revealed in lower degree Fibonacci projections. The C:E 1:1 @ $3.95 is still on the table but that may be a stretch too far.

Looking to the pitchfork; it also reveals a weakening trend with the C wave piercing the yellow median line but E wave only stretching to the green lower median line. This shows us that this trend is leaning over and drifting sideways which will lead to it breaking down into a sub correction.

Looking now to the E wave - there is within it a running flat B corrective wave comprised from a lower degree abc. Taking the lower degree count I have projected a 1:1 using pivots 0Aa and a 1:0.618 using pivots 0Bc. Both of these project to almost exactly the same target - $3.55 and $3.54; slightly overshooting the higher degree C:E 1:0.618 and so it would appear the short range projections of the lower degree count are indicating that the 1:0.618 @ $3.39 will be the anchoring Fibonacci projection with short range fibs capturing the overshoot. And price can even overshoot the short range fibs slightly as even shorter range projections can be taken on even lower wave counts. However price will likely be topping in the area mentioned.

So the wave structure indicates the top is not in yet but also the candles reflect this. When the top arrives we will most likely see some sell pressure and this will print upper wicked candles as can be seen around the A and C tops. But this E wave has not yet printed any upper wicked candles on the 4H chart - indicating the top is not in. At the top it would be common for a candle with strong sell pressure to form with upper wicks passing through short range fib area before correcting down. We shall see if that happens here.

We can also view this upward move through the lens of Wyckoff distribution schematics, and so in yellow I have shown PSY (preliminary supply) with much higher volume than BC (buying climax) where volume declines further into UT (upthrust)- revealing that the gas is running out and a retracement is due.

The 0.382 retracement has now moved up with the trendline top @ $3.55 short range fib target area to $2.83. Obviously we cannot know this retracement until the top is in. 0.5 retracement will take price all the way back down to the long term 2.618 fib @ $2.64.

In addition there is resistance turned support - AR (automatic rally). As things stand now, this appears too shallow to hold the upcoming correction, however down the road - consolidation in this area may well reveal the true SOS (sing of strength); similar to the schematics.

Lastly a golden cross will form on the 4H chart with moving averages crossing for the first time since September which interestingly is the same area the the long range 2.618 $2.63 Fibonacci projection was taken. Coincidence? - I think probably not.

... and a 1:0.618 using pivots 0bB.*
CLOV did reverse and there was some choppy action around suggested fib areas @ $3.55 but there was a last wave up and the reversal occurred in no man's land - right in the middle between the 1:0.618 and 1:1 fib targets taken from pivots BCD.

Considering that this appears that it may be a significant reversal point it would strange that there is no phi related Fibonacci pivot to capture it. Perhaps there is one elsewhere

So now to look again at the bearish case but now at the weekly chart and it looks like the phi related pivot may be here.

The weekly candle printed a small wicked shooting star with a thin body through the 0.382 retracement from September high to February low. This shows selling pressure coming in at this area. A larger wick would be more confirming, but this is certainly a signal that price may be reversing here to complete a retracement at 0.382 - the number of continuation. Still 4 days to go on the next candle but if it prints a momentum candle possibly forming an evening star pattern this would reveal the reversal.

Now looking at the daily chart I have drawn a count. This is not the only possible bearish count as a more complex correction could develop but something like this may be forming with an expanded flat ABC with A:C pivots slightly overshooting the 1:1.618 projection to hit the aforementioned 0.382 retracement. So there is plenty of fib confluence here for the reversal.

If the retracement completes in this area then it may have formed completed a corrective primary B wave which would then see a motive C wave down with the most likely target being the equidistant A:C 1:1 @ $0.67.

For this count to be correct there will need to be momentum candles to the downside. If candles print shallow then I'll look again and this may be a more complex correction or perhaps the accumulation upside reversal but as I showed - now that there is a fib strike for the bearish case but not for the bullish case I am now learning toward the bearish case, but I'll see how it develops.

Lastly looking to SPX it may also be completing an X wave which could see another bearish leg down to complete a WXY. If SPX starts printing bearish momentum candles then this will add more weight to the bearish case for CLOV detailed here.

CLOV pushing up again and now to look again through the lens of Wyckoff and see this second push up printing a spinning top candle with upper wick showing selling pressure and forming a fakeout reversal through the -0.382 retracement fib. It is printing bearish divergence and declining volume and so good chance this is UT - UpThrust and will next be looking for SOW Sign Of Weakness perhaps as indexes decline.

I'm going to maintain my now bearish bias.

CLOV printing 2 weekly shooting stars signalling at top.

I have overlaid NDX (apologies been comparing to SPX but this is a NDX stock) and its clear that CLOV is moving with the index. I think indexes will see new lows and so this adds weight to my bearish bias that this is now a B wave to take price even lower.

I'm not shorting as there are better shorts elsewhere such as TWTR. This will go much lower over the next few months I think.
Unless anything changes this may be my last update for CLOV - a bit more detailed in the method I'm developing than other threads. I may update if something interesting happens but if not I'll only update casually as it will no longer be a name in my focus. This has been a process of showing a case for accumulation which through fibonacci and candlestick awareness was proven to be invalid and no capital was wasted in charting this. Assuming nothing interesting happens I may become interested again sub $1 and will perhaps sell puts in high IV and make threads on that. I hope anyone following enjoyed my process and I will do similar in depth analysis elsewhere here and there. Check my recent USOIL and GOLD posts for similar depth and become a follower to be notified of my content.
Checking in on the bullish case for CLOV here to keep the discipline and it has fallen back into the area I suggested. It could now potentially be finding support on AR and taking the 3 previous pivots finds a 1:1.618 in this area.

However price has really slumped and more importantly NDX has gapped down to start the week and has very high risk of downside and so I wont be buying anything here with that type of index risk. CLOV will most likely trend lower.

CLOV failing and not finding support at every support level and fib.

Failing at the 50 day MA and accelerating to the downside.

This was a correct call.

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