$COMP | Another 275 Weeks Of Ramped Up Rally Ending Next Month?

INDEX:COMP   DOW Composite [Test]
378 7

Following a dead-on hit target @ 5786.81 defined last October 30th 2013 (see links below), we evaluated each impulses that preceded the recent two historical major market retracement - Following are (circa) dates, impulse lengths in weeks and percentage retracements:

1 - NOV 1994 to FEB 2000 / Approx. 275 weeks / 61.8% retrac.
2 - MAR 2003 to JUN 2008 / Approx. 278 weeks / 93.5% retrac.

As the current Fed-engorged impulse nears that 275-day moment, question is whether this period has any significance, and whether it is about to repeat itself into another significant decline.

Historical bursting-bubble analyst have already project significant abysmal retracement projections, one most notorious is Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr, author of several demographic based predictions that occurred with quite impressive precision outcomes. In essence, he believe that all bubbles burst, and all bubbles revert to an initial growth trendline from which the bubble was born - In the chart, the trendline is arguably drawn in yellow, although a gentle trendline might also act as a supportive target. In such case, we would be seeing DOW Composite values between 2425 to 2800, if his theory turns out to be true.

In any case, the main interest here is to merely highlight what remains to be proven, which is a 175 to 178 week cycle of ramped up prices, followed by a major depressive decline that historically retraced over 2/3 of historical gains.

Then again, the market (Fed, really) may have resources that could far surpass the time any single counter-trend investor may be willing to endure, especially in such artificial market.

Worth keeping in mind, though.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

PS: Following are links to:
1 - Original $COMP forecast:
2 - Successful Target Hit:
3 - Additional 275-Week chart comment:


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- Alias: @4xForecaster
I'm a big fan of Harry Dent and own all of his books. His best work was done in 1988 when he was on PBS presenting the case for a major bull market ahead and I have it on VHS because I taped the program. His work has shaped many of the trades and investments that I have made my entire adult life. I'm glad you are a reader of his work too. All the best, Tim
+2 Reply
LOL. I came in the US in 1988 to start a MBA. Instead, I sought other degrees, as economics bored my to tears. I was 18 yo at the time. Now, I can't get enough, and I have read his books, receive his newsletter, and re-read past books just for the lessons on demographics and predictive skills he continues to demonstrate ... Just using people's age and behavior. Amazing - D.
+1 Reply
27 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

As we approach another trading week, I would like to bring this chart to the attention of the trader's community. The DOW Composite is typically the last exchange to react to market roll-overs, whereas younger exchanges may react first, mainly because it would probably take a lesser critical mass of investors in lesser capitalized stocks (Russell, AMEX, NYSE, NASDAQ - All arguably "small", of course), to move the underlying asset.

David Alcindor
5 years up, 2 years down
Yes, very interesting cyclical phenomenon - David
TheBull 4xForecaster
Yes! I have also done this analysis. Have you noticed that the this latest 5 years run are more aggressive? Both in the psychological condition and in term of incline and speed. So around september or october we should se some "fall" NIce chart btw!
@TheBull - Yes, I noticed the progressive nature of each rally. By linear projection, I was looking into a "focal point", or converging point, but there are not to be defined. Thank you for your participation and feedback. Greatly appreciated - David
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