Friends,
I ventured to read outside of my cozy Forex interest, and peeked into the US car industry and market. I was quite taken by the divergence between stock valuation and a growing sentiment of impeding collapse.
Here is one interesting company that clearly blazes its own trail for the future of the car company. Question is: Can it do this without a sufficient structural base of consumers? Would selling 27,000 cars over 4 years (that is, since its 2010 IPO public inception) while generating $1 billion in cumulative losses over the last six years inspire you to own this audacious company? Well, to frame it other terms: General Motors, a comparatively far less valued company to Tesla Motors manages to sell about 27,000 cars every day counting weekends.
It seems to me that the structural changes that are about to affect large luxurious ticket items are resting on a precarious base of consumers under aging demographic and widespread deflationary threats, where the former will redirect consumer needs and the latter will hinder consumer demand - Like the song says, you can't always get what you want, but you might get what you need.
- Is Tesla responding to that need?
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
On a pure predictive/forecasting model basis, the short and mid-term data has confirmed a bearish market reversal signal, whereas the long-term remains bullish.
The following are the two most immediate bearish targets generated by the model:
1 - TG-1 = 162.55 - 16 MAY 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 126.37 - 16 MAY 2014.
STRUCTURAL DATA:
A structural analysis brings up two supportive values, defining a probable range in which price action would find greatest resistance to move forward, namely the 133.07/147.96 range defined in the chart.
OVERALL:
Based on the predictive/forecasting model and structural data, the directional outlook is bearish for this car manufacturer. Taking into account a domestic and worldwide economies burdened by expected social and behavioral shifts, this trader's can't help wonder whether this stock is driving impaired by some Fed-laced inhalant, or whether it sees its own light at the end of one visionary tunnel.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator
--------------------------------
Get instant signals, forecasts and analysis via Twitter.
- Alias: 4xForecaster
--------------------------------
PS: I have attached market indices pointing to significant highs or reversal levels, which point to a significant resistance against the current bullish status quo.
- David Alcindor
I ventured to read outside of my cozy Forex interest, and peeked into the US car industry and market. I was quite taken by the divergence between stock valuation and a growing sentiment of impeding collapse.
Here is one interesting company that clearly blazes its own trail for the future of the car company. Question is: Can it do this without a sufficient structural base of consumers? Would selling 27,000 cars over 4 years (that is, since its 2010 IPO public inception) while generating $1 billion in cumulative losses over the last six years inspire you to own this audacious company? Well, to frame it other terms: General Motors, a comparatively far less valued company to Tesla Motors manages to sell about 27,000 cars every day counting weekends.
It seems to me that the structural changes that are about to affect large luxurious ticket items are resting on a precarious base of consumers under aging demographic and widespread deflationary threats, where the former will redirect consumer needs and the latter will hinder consumer demand - Like the song says, you can't always get what you want, but you might get what you need.
- Is Tesla responding to that need?
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
On a pure predictive/forecasting model basis, the short and mid-term data has confirmed a bearish market reversal signal, whereas the long-term remains bullish.
The following are the two most immediate bearish targets generated by the model:
1 - TG-1 = 162.55 - 16 MAY 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 126.37 - 16 MAY 2014.
STRUCTURAL DATA:
A structural analysis brings up two supportive values, defining a probable range in which price action would find greatest resistance to move forward, namely the 133.07/147.96 range defined in the chart.
OVERALL:
Based on the predictive/forecasting model and structural data, the directional outlook is bearish for this car manufacturer. Taking into account a domestic and worldwide economies burdened by expected social and behavioral shifts, this trader's can't help wonder whether this stock is driving impaired by some Fed-laced inhalant, or whether it sees its own light at the end of one visionary tunnel.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator
--------------------------------
Get instant signals, forecasts and analysis via Twitter.
- Alias: 4xForecaster
--------------------------------
PS: I have attached market indices pointing to significant highs or reversal levels, which point to a significant resistance against the current bullish status quo.
- David Alcindor
