Coupa Cloud Bubble Pop

Trading at > 25x revenue. That's right revenue, not earnings because this POS loses money.

Cloud bubbles bursting everywhere on the market, I think this one is next.

Bought some $140 puts on open, earnings on Tuesday.

Comment:

25 P/S ratio, you'd think this was a biotech company.

Should be trading around $30, heck, they can't even make a profit. While they have decent growth, SGA and R&D costs are increasing faster than revenue.

The big drop probably won't happen until their growth stops. That's what happened with ANET and FFIV.

Comment:

If you're skittish I'd flip the puts here and take the small profit.

I'm in it for earnings after market close, remember earnings are always a crap shoot.

Comment:

Flipped some of my puts today, will only lose a few hundred on this trade if it goes the wrong way. If you'e skittish, just sell some of your position now before earnings... (Though if this goes down, I think it' gonna go down big. Investors look skittish before earnings.)

Remember, intraday movement is not indicative of which way earnings go.

Trade active:

So glad I flipped some before earnings. Decided to keep the 140 puts this morning and added a little $150.

COUP usually closes gaps, it's a matter of when. Will probably close this position out soon since I'm even. Probably tomorrow.

Comment:

Pretty good chance it forms a doji today, I'd wait until the end of the day to buy puts if you haven't already.

Was too busy to post this morning.

Trade closed manually:

Flipped the 150's. Holding a couple of $140s and that's it now.

Looks like I'll make money off of this, can't lose now.

Comment:

At this point it looks like a failed break out. All the idiot pumpers who bought after it gapped up are going to panic and dump the next couple of days.

The other scenario is that it goes sideways until the market tanks on Fed meeting like last year.

Comment:

All this hype, and their balance sheet actually went negative for tangible assets this quarter. Of course, nobody looks at balance sheets in a bubble.

Comment:

Very much surprised by this rally the past hour. Looks like I might lose my profits from flipping puts yesterday. Holding my 140 puts, but not actively trading this pump, this stock is acting very unpredictable right now.

My best guess is a double top before it goes for the gap fill below, but who knows. Will flip the puts if we get a gap fill before expiration.

Comment:

Would appear to be a breakout, if it does it's headed to $175 or so.

Keeping the 140 puts because it's about worthless now and it was all profits anyways. Definitely not touching this. I bet it comes back and closes that gap below, probably next earnings.

Comment:

Not sure what the hell this crap is doing, still holding those 140 puts and still expecting a gap fill eventually. COUP hasn't left a gap open since it started trading, so I see no reason why it would leave an open gap here.

The big question is when....

Trade closed manually:

Not really how I pictured this to go but I made money on this trade so I closed it out.

I expect this to close the gap, so probably gaps down tomorrow then heads back up. This stock does make for good TA, tends to whipsaw, so I'm done with it for now.

Comment:

LOL, there's your gap fill. Didn't think it'd do it today.

No idea where it goes from here....