DAX 1D Golden Cross is bullish but mid-term indicates volatility

Today the German stock market (DAX) completed a Golden Cross pattern on the 1D time-frame, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is technically a bullish formation and that is what we interpret it as, at least on the long-term. Historically a 1D Golden Cross delivers new Bull Phases on DAX and it was such a Cross that took it out of the last major Bull Cycle in 2009 (U.S. housing crisis).

On this study though we give particular attention to the previous two Golden Crosses, which all share similar characteristics to today's. Once the index broke above the Bear Phase's Lower Highs trend-line, the Golden Cross was formed shortly after, with the 1W RSI getting rejected on roughly the same level (red Resistance Zone). On both occasions the price pulled-back to at least the 1D MA200. That is currently at 13540 and should stay around this level through-out Q1 of 2023. If a similar Megaphone pattern transitions DAX into the new Bull Phase, then we expect the index to have bottomed around the 1D MA200 by the end of Q1 (March) 2023 and then rebound towards recovering its All Time High.


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